playBen SolakCloseBen SolakESPNBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network., Seth WalderCloseSeth WalderESPN AnalyticsSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017.
He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder., Matt BowenCloseMatt BowenESPN WriterMatt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on “NFL Matchup.” After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.Multiple AuthorsSep 25, 2026, 06:39 AM ETOpen Extended ReactionsValue is value, no matter where — or how — you find it.
And that’s what we’ll aim to do each week in this space: finding betting value.Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X’s and O’s to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game-winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.
With that, let’s dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 3.Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Jump to: Bowen’s Game of the Week | Solak’s plays | Walder’s propsBowen’s Game of the WeekKansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-10.5, 46.5) 1 p.m. ET on CBS, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.I tend to stay away from double-digit spreads in this league (especially for road favorites). That can be bad business given the talent level and coaching we get on Sundays. But looking at the matchup and scheme advantages with Kansas City, I’m in on Andy Reid’s team.
I’ll give you my quick notes for both clubs, along with some player props.When the Chiefs have the ball: The offseason addition of Kenneth Walker III has given the Chiefs a true difference-maker with dual-threat traits in the backfield. Walker has rushed for at least 117 yards — with at least 23 carries — in both games this season, and in a Week 2 win over the Indianapolis Colts he caught six of 10 targets for 61 yards. We can expect Walker to get his touches on the ground against a Miami defense giving up 112.5 rushing yards per game (18th in the NFL), which allows Reid’s unit to control offensive tempo.In the pass game, I see clear matchup advantages for the Chiefs. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 8.6 YPA (30th in the NFL), and they play man coverage at a rate of 58.9% (fourth most).
Look for Reid to set up his receivers for catch-and-run throws from Patrick Mahomes, with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce working multiple levels of the field against a Miami secondary that lacks high-end talent.When Miami has the ball: The Dolphins have struggled to build offensive rhythm and lack an identity, having failed to score more than 13 points in each of their first two games. Running back De’Von Achane has rushed for a total of 110 yards this season, and we aren’t seeing his elite pass-catching ability (he has only 49 yards receiving). Quarterback Malik Willis has shown flashes, but his accuracy has been inconsistent (completing 58% of his passes), and he has thrown only one touchdown pass.Now, Miami does have some young talent in the pass game with Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, but the Dolphins lack a proven No. 1 who can win critical game situations at a high rate. They average only 183.5 passing yards per game, and now get a multiple Chiefs defense — one that leans on late movement and schemed pressure.
This Kansas City defense is giving up 90 yards rushing per game and only 5.5 YPA. Miami will need to find a way to create positive game flow while producing some explosive plays to stay in this one.Now, let’s get to some prop bets …Rashee Rice receiving yards OVER 47.5 (-114)Rice, who caught four of six targets for 83 yards in the Week 2 win over the Colts, could have early opportunities against the Dolphins’ single-high man coverages. Rice can turn an underneath throw into an explosive gain.Travis Kelce receptions OVER 4.5 receptions (-114)Kelce’s play speed looked different last week against the Colts, both in the route stem and after the catch. Kelce caught nine of 11 targets in that game, using his high-end coverage awareness to find open grass.
He should be a priority target again for Mahomes on Sunday.Tyquan Thornton anytime TD (+475)I’m thinking of a shot-play throw here to Thornton on Sunday. Thornton caught all four of his targets for 86 yards last week against the Colts, so look for Reid to set up him on a deep-ball concept in Miami.Solak’s playsplay1:32Why Domonique Foxworth feels scorned for believing the Cowboys hypeBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) vs. Dallas CowboysInjuries are important to watch heading into this game. Not one of WR Zay Flowers, OT Ronnie Stanley or OLB Trey Hendrickson practiced Wednesday for the Ravens.
Still, head coach Jesse Minter said after practice that he feels “like we will have a good shot with a lot of guys this week.”Assuming the Ravens are relatively close to full strength, I like their matchup against Dallas quite a bit. The Cowboys’ back seven has struggled tremendously through two weeks of the Christian Parker era on defense; it’s a challenging defensive scheme, and they are generally lacking for team speed. Their light edge rushers can be targeted in the run game. Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has excelled at two things so far: attacking the edge in the running game, and generating YAC opportunities for Flowers.
Baltimore might steamroll the Cowboys.I’m a little worried about the travel and field in Brazil, which can introduce some chaos. The Cowboys’ offense can also score in bunches. But the Ravens are a better pressure team, thanks to the play of Hendrickson and Minter’s willingness to send pressures on key downs. I like them to get enough stops in what should be a high-scoring affair.I’d take this up to -4 (-110), but only if we get positive injury news throughout the week.Zay Flowers 90+ receiving yards (+154)I have all of the Flowers overs and alts for similar reasons listed above.
Flowers was red hot in Week 1, with five catches for 150 yards and a score on six targets in just the first half against Indianapolis. Now he gets a Cowboys secondary that might be without starting CB Cobie Durant and S P.J. Locke, both of whom defensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said are likely to sit out multiple weeks, and fellow safety Malik Hooker, who fractured his forearm in Week 1, sat out Week 2 and did not practice Wednesday. The Cowboys’ secondary is already bleeding talent.This also is a bust-riddled group that has already dealt with communication changes (rookie third-round LB Jaishawn Barham wore the green dot in Week 2) because of linebacker injuries.
With Flowers’ speed and positional versatility, the Ravens should be able to funnel him easy targets in space at will.Of course, Flowers might not go this week; he’s dealing with a hamstring injury, and the field in Brazil is reportedly imperfect. But if he does go, I want to have his numbers from early in the week before they get steamed.Houston Texans -2.5 (-118) at Indianapolis ColtsTwo 0-2 division rivals seemingly with their seasons already on the line — intense stuff for Week 3. I admired the Colts’ pluck in their game against the Chiefs, but the
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