playBen SolakSep 25, 2026, 06:30 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsESPN will televise the Super Bowl for the first time in February 2027. We will count down to the big game with Super Bowl-centric stories every month.Super Bowl winners are, by definition, improbable. It’s not just the 1-out-of-32 math.
It is mostly due to the fact that the NFL plays a best-of-one playoff series — no best-of-five or best-of-seven series to save a good team that has a bad game or unlucky break. It’s also the fact that injury attrition eliminates multiple playoff teams before the ball is ever snapped. It is so, so hard to win a Super Bowl.It’s even harder to predict who will win a Super Bowl — let alone the next five. (Why does nobody ever write about how much tougher my job is than an NFL head coach’s?) We’re two weeks into the 2026 season, and I have no idea who will win the Super Bowl in February. But I gave my best mid-September bet.
Then, I went to next year (which is still kind of reasonable). And then I predicted the year after that (which was totally wacky). And then I did two more just because.To build this list, I tried not to be too scientific. A rigorous look at elite quarterbacks, elite coaches and a pedigree of winning would have given us … the Chiefs, Rams and Seahawks in every Super Bowl down the way.
I was reminded of Seth Walder’s lovely FPI preseason simulation piece, in which he selects just one simulation from the set of thousands run during the preseason to determine team strength. It’s a reminder that predicting an exact outcome — not the likeliest outcome, but one exact outcome — should carry with it some challenges to credulity. So (spoiler alert), if Ravens fans and Bills fans are upset that they are not included below, just know this: Browns fans and Dolphins fans also have the right to be upset.Remember to take these predictions as seriously as possible. Aggregate them with the headline “ESPN NFL analyst predicts [insert team] to win a Super Bowl within five seasons!” A lot of people will click.
And more importantly, absolutely nobody will angrily DM me on social media.Jump to a season: 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 20302026 season: Seattle SeahawksIt’s a little weird to pick a Super Bowl champion for the current season when we have only a two-game sample. It would be easier with no games (here are my preseason vibes) or something like eight games (OK, these guys are definitely good).I usually never pick repeats — it’s so hard to get back to the dance after a long season the year before — but it’s difficult to argue any team has been better than Seattle through this short season. Quarterback Sam Darnold (hip) went down in the first quarter against the Patriots in Week 1, and Mike Macdonald’s group is still 2-0.What stands out about Macdonald’s Seahawks — and what makes them feel so repeatable — is how the defense hasn’t missed a beat despite offseason departures. We usually feel the brain drain (and long-season exhaustion) of a Super Bowl champion early in the ensuing season — that is not so in Seattle.
The entire defensive coaching staff remained and has easily accounted for the departures of safety Coby Bryant, cornerback Riq Woolen and edge rusher Boye Mafe.The work of new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury with backup quarterback Drew Lock has been impressive; Lock was ripping throws over the middle with timing and accuracy. Getting good play out of a QB2 is not the same skill set as getting good play out of a QB1, but all of the signs I’ve seen from Seattle thus far are that Fleury can keep up Klint Kubiak’s momentum. The improvements in the running game — even before Zach Charbonnet returns from injured reserve — are noticeable, too.If the Seahawks repeat … then are they a dynasty? Probably not.
Dynasties are made over a decade of dominance, not consecutive championships. Darnold would become the ninth quarterback to win consecutive Super Bowls, and with only one year left on his deal, he would likely demand — and get — a market-rate contract at the level of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. What are the Seahawks going to do, not give it him?What I think happens: Seattle loses the NFC West title to the Rams by tiebreaker rules … only to beat the Rams in an NFC Championship rematch as the fifth seed. That game ends 22-21 on a successful Seahawks two-point conversion at the end of regulation (no fumble hijinks this time).
Seattle goes on to face the Texans (yes, the currently 0-2 Texans) in one of the lowest-scoring Super Bowls of the 2000s — not quite the 13-3 Patriots-Rams score from 2019 but close. The Seahawks win 16-10 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon wins MVP (as he should have last season) with a stuffed stat sheet: seven tackles, three TFLs, one sack and one interception.2027 season: Cincinnati BengalsIt’s actually quite rare to see a quarterback make a Super Bowl and then make his next one six years later. John Elway is perhaps the best example, though he made three close together (1986, 1987, 1989) and then another two after a long hiatus (1997,1998).
Elway and Joe Burrow would be the only two to do it with the same franchise. Craig Morton did it back in the 1970s with two teams — as a Cowboy in 1970 and a Bronco in 1977 — and Kurt Warner did it with the Rams in 2002 and the Cardinals in 2009.But I think Burrow can do it by sticking with the Bengals, who have endured injury-ruined years and defensive decay ever since reaching the Super Bowl in 2021. Their huge 2026 offseason bet on Dexter Lawrence II (and other defensive improvements aside) serves as proof of their desperation to get back before the current regime of coach Zac Taylor, de facto GM Duke Tobin and Burrow undergoes a major shake-up.The Bengals have a great shot at representing the AFC in 2026 because of their stars at premium positions: quarterback (Burrow), wide receiver (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins), cornerback (DJ Turner II) and offensive tackle (Amarius Mims). Their lack of a true star edge rusher is mitigated by the presence of Lawrence, who through two games has been exactly the force multiplier they hoped on the interior.I am, however, concerned about the youth on the team in a 2026 playoff run.
A lot of those key defensive players haven’t taken serious playoff snaps. Demetrius Knight Jr., Barrett Carter, Dax Hill, Turner — even Lawrence himself has only two games of postseason action. For as clutch as Burrow is, and how dangerous that offense is, it’s easy to forget that the defense powered the Bengals’ AFC playoff run in 2021 — holding Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to three points in the second half of the AFC Championship Game, intercepting Ryan Tannehill with 20 seconds left in the divisional round and holding on fourth-and-goal against the Raiders in the wild-card round.What I think happens: The Bengals will use a deep 2026 playoff run that falls just short to propel themselves over the hump in 2027. In free agency, the team retains both Turner and Hill (somehow, don’t ask me) to keep the secondary in a strong spot.
Cincinnati also swings a bold trade for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil as the Commanders rebuild, banking that he has one last great year in him — and he does. The Super Bowl victory comes a year later than they hoped, but the Bengals get revenge on the Rams — in what ends up as Matthew Stafford’s final season — with a 31-30 last-second win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.2028 season: Tampa Bay BuccaneersProjecting 2026 and 2027 at least has some sort of tether in our current reality, but 2028 is where things slide quickly into dreamland. Consider projecting the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl two years ago. Pete Carroll was still the head coach, Geno Smith was the quarterback, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the No. 3 receiver.
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