Composite: Prina Shah for the Guardian / Getty ImagesView image in fullscreen Composite: Prina Shah for the Guardian / Getty ImagesFrom idealists to struggling sceptics: how Labour’s majority depends on five progressive voter types – in chartsAnalysis reveals groups with sharply contrasting priorities – and who has drifted the most from Labour towards Greens and Reform Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll finds UK politics live – latest updatesA new MRP poll suggests Labour would remain the largest party if a general election were held now, but would fall well short of an overall majority as Reform surged into second place.Behind those headline figures, research from Survation and 38 Degrees casts new light on five distinct voter groups who are collectively defined as the “progressive majority”. These people share concerns about living costs and the NHS, but differ over immigration, the environment, political trust and the pace of change needed to address the UK’s policies.Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll findsRead moreTo build a parliamentary majority, Labour must hold on to the groups that have remained relatively loyal, while winning back voters drifting towards the Greens, Reform or political disengagement. In short, they need enough of this “progressive majority” to stay within the fold.Labour strategists – including Keir Starmer’s former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney – have often been wary of a tactic that seeks only to unite the progressive bloc. But while it would result in Labour losing huge swathes of seats that it won in 2024, it may be enough to lock Nigel Farage out of No 10 if there were significant tactical voting.It also gives a clue to how Andy Burnham might seek to structure his priorities – and why the cost of living will be at the heart of the prime minister’s policy platform at the Labour conference, one with salience for voters considering either the Greens or Reform.The charts below, which are based on polling of more than 8,000 voters, show how Labour’s support cuts across age, class and geography – and reveal five distinct voter groups with contrasting priorities.The five groups in the ‘progressive majority’The researchers identified five groups of people who collectively make up what they call the “progressive majority”.It is a key group of voters who they argue the Labour government should be targeting if they want to win an overall majority at the next general election.The five groups are described as:View image in fullscreen Illustration: Guardian Design/GettyRooted traditionalists: Older, economically left-leaning voters who are highly concerned about immigration and less interested in environmental issues.
Many moved from the Conservatives to Labour but could shift again, including towards Reform. Cost of living pressures and NHS access provide the strongest common ground with other progressive voters.View image in fullscreen Composite: Guardian design / GettyOpen-hearted idealists: Affluent, highly educated and the most socially liberal, pro-immigration and politically engaged group. They lean strongly towards Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems and are particularly open to tactical voting. Bills, NHS access and progressive taxation matter most, while tougher immigration policies risk alienating them.View image in fullscreen Composite: Guardian design / GettyQuiet persuadables: The youngest and least politically committed segment, often holding centrist or uncertain views.
Their support is spread widely across the parties and they are the most likely to vote tactically. They are potentially winnable, but need a compelling reason to engage with politics.View image in fullscreen Composite: Guardian design / GettyTrusting optimists: Young, affluent, urban and highly educated, with strong confidence in their finances, the government and the country’s future. Most support Labour and economically progressive policies, but they are also the most socially authoritarian group. Their political loyalty could weaken if their circumstances deteriorate.View image in fullscreen Composite: Guardian design / GettyStruggling sceptics: The least financially secure, trusting and electorally engaged group, with many believing voting changes little.
Although economically left-leaning, their support is divided between Labour, the Greens and Reform. Winning them back could depend on tangible improvements to bills, wages and living standards rather than political messaging alone.There are clear demographic differences between the groups.Quiet persuadables are the youngest-leaning group, while very few rooted traditionalists are young; more than a third of them are over 65.Age groups chartTrusting optimists are twice as likely as voters overall to live in London, while rooted traditionalists are half as likely.Regional chartStruggling sceptics are most likely to have no or low-level qualifications. Meanwhile, almost two-thirds of trusting optimists are graduates.Education chartWhile nearly a third of struggling sceptics are in lower-income households, trusting optimists and open-hearted idealists are the most affluent groups, with most households earning more than £40,000.Income chartRooted traditionalists are overwhelmingly white, while trusting optimists are by far the most ethnically diverse group.Ethnic groups chartRooted traditionalists and struggling sceptics contain the most leave voters, while open-hearted idealists are overwhelmingly remain-aligned.Brexit chartHow the ‘progressive majority’ is intending to voteThese five constituent groups collectively account for nine in 10 current Labour voters.This is up from eight in 10 at the 2024 general election, showing that Labour’s support has become more concentrated among progressive voters in the last two years.Open-hearted idealists provide the largest share of Labour’s support at 28%, followed by quiet persuadables at 21%. Trusting optimists have recorded the largest increase, rising four percentage points in the last two years.2024 election chartAt the time of polling, Labour led among all five progressive voter groups – although support ranged from 25% among struggling sceptics to 57% among trusting optimists.Open-hearted idealists lean heavily towards progressive parties, with the Greens being supported by 23% of this group.Struggling sceptics are the most fragmented group: Labour leads on 25%, but the Greens and Reform both attract substantial support.
Thirteen per cent remain undecided – the highest rate of any group.Reform performed relatively strongly among rooted traditionalists, whereas the Conservatives reached their highest level among quiet persuadables.Voting intention chartThe shifts since 2024 are often down to the fact that, while Labour has lost support across the board, some of these groups are more likely to have found another political home – despite the government switching prime minister.The Greens have gained the most support among open-hearted idealists, while Reform’s rise is most concentrated among struggling sceptics and rooted traditionalists.The struggling sceptics are the group among which Labour has lost the most support, falling from 39% to 28%. Both the Greens and Reform have gained among these people, rising to 21% and 18% respectively.Greens and Reform gainsThe quiet persuadables and trusting optimists are the groups that have stuck with Labour the most, recording only small drops in support since the general election.While this is probably due to the stronger financial position of the trusting optimists, who are more likely to trust progressive politicians, the quiet persuadables are less committed to politics and generally don’t hold stronger political views.Conflicting policy priorities – but ‘manageable’ dividesLooking at the concerns of these five groups reveals conflicting priorities which could be hard
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