playDan GrazianoSep 13, 2026, 07:55 PM ETCloseDan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsHOUSTON — Week 1 overreactions are the absolute best. I make this point every season, but I can’t contain my excitement.
When you do a weekly overreactions column during the season, along with a few in the offseason around the draft, free agency, etc., there are times when you’re reaching for overreactions. But not in Week 1. No way.Almost everything is an overreaction in Week 1. If you had a specific concern about your team in the offseason — such as C.J.
Stroud turnovers, to pick a random example — and that concern is the reason that team lost its opener, you overreact.See?!?! I TOLD you this was going to happen!!!If you were looking forward to something about your team — such as the Bears possibly having the best offense of all time — and it scores 59 points in Week 1, well, you’re inclined to believe you were right about that, too.Week 1 is the best! I could write 100 overreactions off what has happened this week, but that’s a lot of work and you guys have other stuff to read, too. So let’s sort through five potential Week 1 takeaways and judge them as legitimate stances or irrational overreactions — and we also hit a few fantasy football overreactions at the bottom.Jump to: Bears’ offense will be forced to set scoring record?
Jackson to be first $70 million player? Young will get long-term deal before Stroud? Chargers were the offseason’s most overhyped team? Rams’ “superteam” will miss playoffs?
Fantasy overreactionsThe Bears are going to have to set the scoring record with the state of their defenseSecond-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson made headlines this offseason when he said that his goal was to set the single-season team scoring record. He knows the record is 606 points — 37.9 points per game — by Peyton Manning and the 2013 Denver Broncos. The Bears scored 59 points against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and are on pace to score 1,003 points. I’ll save you having to open your calculator app — that’s more than 606.Chicago had 552 yards Sunday on 70 plays.
The Bears converted 10 of 14 third downs. Quarterback Caleb Williams had 269 passing yards and two touchdowns, along with 65 rushing yards and two more touchdowns. Two Bears running backs reached 100 rushing yards, with D’Andre Swift having 134 and three touchdowns.But the Bears also gave up 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers and couldn’t seal the win until the fourth quarter despite punting only twice.Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTIONThe concerns about Chicago’s defense entering the season were legitimate. The Bears are light in the secondary and the pass rush.
They signed safety Coby Bryant in free agency, but he suffered a knee injury in camp and will miss significant time. Xavier Woods, who was signed in part to help make up for the Bryant loss, was inactive Sunday because of a groin injury. The Bears are very much piecing things together in the secondary, and they’re having to do it with fewer pieces than they planned.Bryce Young and the Panthers are better offensively than given credit for, but the Bears will face tougher offenses than Carolina’s this season. Johnson’s offense should hum all season, but there will be weeks when Dennis Allen might have to manufacture a miracle or two on defense for the Bears to remain on playoff pace.Lamar Jackson could get $70 million per year on his next contractOne of the big questions entering this season is what the Ravens’ offense would look like under new coordinator Declan Doyle and new head coach Jesse Minter.
Week 1 provided a very encouraging answer. The Ravens scored 41 points in Sunday’s victory over the Colts. Jackson was 17-for-25 for 324 passing yards and a touchdown and added 40 rushing yards and another touchdown.Running back Derrick Henry added 144 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Zay Flowers had 150 receiving yards and didn’t play in the second half.
Flowers and rookie wideout Ja’Kobi Lane left early due to injuries in this game, and it didn’t matter. The Ravens’ offense did basically whatever it wanted to do. Jackson looks healthy and energized, and he often becomes the MVP when that happens.Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTIONHere’s the deal: Jackson has two years left on his contract. It includes a no-trade clause and a clause that prohibits the Ravens from using the franchise or transition tag on him at the end of it.
His 2027 cap number is currently projected to be $74.81 million unless the Ravens extend his contract next spring. They approached him about an extension this offseason and could not get one done.Jackson has incredible leverage. If — I say if because I do not know his mindset — he wants to play out the deal and become a free agent in 2028 at age 31, he can do that. If he doesn’t want to sign an extension with the Ravens, he doesn’t have to.
Jackson holds the cards. So, if he does have a huge year and the Ravens do end up extending him, they shouldn’t be expecting a hometown discount. If you’re going to do your team a favor, you do your deal the way Patrick Mahomes does his. Not the way Jackson seems to be doing his.Whether he gets his new deal from the Ravens this season, next spring or he plays out the contract and hits the market in 2028, Jackson should eclipse Mahomes’ $64 million per year average in his next deal.
If Jackson wins another MVP award, he should clear that by a lot.The Panthers will extend Bryce Young before the Texans extend C.J. StroudYoung was pretty good in that ridiculous loss to the Bears. He had 361 passing yards and a touchdown while adding 10 rushing yards and another score. It’s a promising start after he helped lead the Panthers to a division title and the postseason in 2025.
Young has shown consistent improvement since being benched for Andy Dalton early in the 2024 season. Though the Panthers didn’t make a move to do an extension this offseason, it’s not out of the question for them to do one eventually. They like Young and still think he can be their franchise QB.Stroud played well in the Texans’ tough season-opening loss to Buffalo. He threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns and had the Texans marching toward a possible winning score in the final minute.
Unfortunately, he took two bad sacks on that possession, with the second ending in a fumble that the Bills recovered to seal their 36-31 victory. Stroud also lost a fumble on Houston’s first possession of the game. After his turnover-riddled postseason last January, turning the ball over twice in Week 1 wasn’t what he needed to do to change the discourse.play1:05Bills take down Texans 36-31 in a thrillerVerdict: OVERREACTIONYeah, it has been only one week. The Texans still like Stroud and would be happy to sign him to an extension.
One of the reasons they haven’t yet is because Stroud wanted to bet on himself and see if he could get a top-of-market deal next spring after what he hopes will be a successful season with a better ending than last year’s. That is still within the range of realistic outcomes.There is a long way to go before Stroud and Young are talking to their respective teams about new deals next spring. If you — based on one week of the 2026 season — think you know how things will go when the time arises … well, you’re overreacting.The Chargers were the most overhyped team of the offseasonRemember how awesome the Mike McDaniel/Justin Herbert combination was supposed to be? Well, nobody told the Arizona Cardinals, who thumped the offseason darlings 26-14 to salvage the day for the LaFleur family.
Herbert was sacked three times, threw one interception and managed only 209 passing yards. The offe
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