playHeather DinichNov 8, 2026, 02:17 AM ETMultiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsThe SEC is still in a position to get two first-round byes, earn the most playoff bids and reassert itself with a national champion for the first time in three seasons.It just won’t be LSU. Or Kentucky.Texas, for all of its flaws, found a way to beat a CFP top 25 team — again — with its 22-21 come-from-behind win at LSU, eliminating the four-loss Tigers from any lingering hopes of playing their way back into the conversation. Quarterback Arch Manning put together an underwhelming performance, completing just 19 of 35 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.But he again made that one play that changed the game and in turn cemented the Longhorns’ place in the playoff race barring a catastrophic upset over the next two weeks. And with Kentucky’s home loss to Florida, the Wildcats are likely to drop out of the committee’s third ranking, opening the door for …Wake Forest?
Iowa? Oregon?The SEC could “only” have four teams in the committee’s top 12 on Tuesday night, and the mighty Big Ten is down to two, which opens the door for another conference to make a move. This could be one of the most varied fields in playoff history, with two ACC teams, two Big 12 teams, two Big Ten teams, Notre Dame and Boise State.How do they all stack up after the Week 11 results?Based on what the committee did in its second ranking, plus historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here’s a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.Jump to: Ranking | BracketProjecting the top 121. Georgia Bulldogs (9-1)Why they could be here: The Bulldogs had no trouble dismantling Missouri on Saturday, jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead, which should only further cement their spot as the committee’s top team.
“The committee is very high on Georgia,” committee chair Hunter Yurachek said following the group’s second ranking. “They’ve got great analytics. But I think more than that, just watching that team and how they function defensively, what Gunner Stockton means to that team offensively. That’s just a really complete team that the committee is very high on.” Georgia entered Week 11 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, trailing only undefeated UCLA, and ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, according to ESPN Analytics.
Wins at Alabama and Ole Miss have helped offset the Oct. 17 home loss to Auburn.Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify dropping the Bulldogs after their convincing win against Mizzou, unless enough people thought Utah’s undefeated résumé is now worth the top spot.Need to know: There’s a new advantage this year to earning the No. 1 seed. On Selection Day, the No. 1 seed gets to choose its CFP quarterfinal bowl. It will also pick the CFP semifinal bowl it would advance to with a quarterfinal win. The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in nearby Atlanta is hosting a quarterfinal this year.
Georgia would then choose between the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl for a semifinal.Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at South Carolina. The Gamecocks had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday at Arkansas, but are notorious for playing the role of spoiler. If quarterback LaNorris Sellers (ankle) returns to the starting lineup, it becomes a bigger challenge for Georgia’s defense.2. Utah Utes (10-0)Why they could be here: If the selection committee didn’t think undefeated Utah was better than one-loss Georgia a week ago, it’s unlikely a road win at Arizona will change that in the third ranking.
More likely, the Utes solidified their spot as the committee’s top undefeated team, still ahead of UCLA, in large part because of back-to-back wins against CFP Top 25 teams. Utah’s strength of schedule is No. 67, according to ESPN Analytics, but that hasn’t held the Utes back yet.Why they could be lower: The Utes’ back-to-back wins against Houston and Cincinnati at the end of October have been devalued after Houston lost at Colorado and Cincy has now lost five of its past six games.Need to know: If the Utes run the table but lose in the Big 12 title game and finish as a one-loss runner up, they will still finish in the top 12, but they might take a significant tumble. The committee would compare them with other one-loss teams, and the Utes could fall behind Miami, especially if the Canes add the ACC title to their résumé.Toughest remaining game: Nov. 21 at TCU. Both TCU and West Virginia are 5-5, so having to play a second straight road game is more challenging.
The Utes will have a short week to prepare for their Friday night home game against West Virginia. ESPN’s FPI gives Utah a 73.5% chance to win at TCU and a 91.9% chance to beat West Virginia.3. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-2)Why they could be here: The Tide’s win against Vandy won’t do much to improve its place in the pecking order, but Alabama established itself in the room with four “really good wins in the view of the committee,” Yurachek said. Wins at LSU, at Kentucky, against South Carolina and at Mississippi State have earned the Tide the top two-loss spot.
All four of those teams, though, lost on Saturday. The Sept. 12 win at Kentucky lost some of its luster after the Wildcats lost at home to Florida. South Carolina lost to Arkansas, as that was also another win the committee used to help justify Alabama’s position. And LSU will likely fall out of the top 25 after its home loss to Texas.
The committee isn’t penalizing Alabama for its 20-17 home loss to Georgia on Oct. 10, nor has it held the Tide back for its 16-point head-to-head loss at Tennessee the following week.Why they could be lower: Saturday’s win against Vandy wasn’t pretty. Alabama was held to just 92 rushing yards, had two turnovers, and held a precarious 7-3 halftime lead against a team that has now lost six of its past seven games. With Saturday’s win at LSU, Texas now has a résumé worthy of consideration for the committee’s top two-loss team. The Longhorns haven’t played as consistently well as Alabama has, though.Need to know: Alabama is No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of schedule metric, No. 3 in overall efficiencies, and No. 5 in Strength of Record.
Georgia is the only SEC team, though, that can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game in Week 12.Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Auburn. Alabama will host Chattanooga on Saturday before ending the regular season at home against rival Auburn.4. UCLA Bruins (10-0)Why they could be here: The Bruins are No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric and remained undefeated following Friday night’s 22-14 win against Illinois.
They added a boost to their résumé by beating another Power 4 opponent over .500. Yurachek said the committee has rewarded the Bruins for their undefeated record and their defense, which has been “steady and really dominant all season.” He also pointed to their established running game, and improved quarterback play. The Oct. 10 win at Oregon continues to increase in value as the Ducks creep up the CFP Top 25, but the Nov. 7 win at Minnesota also impressed the committee. UCLA beat the Gophers on the road, while Indiana needed a 60-yard field goal and overtime to beat Minnesota at home.
“That’s a Minnesota team that had beaten Iowa on that same field,” Yurachek said. “UCLA winning there looked like the No. 4-ranked team in the country winning that game by two scores.”Why they could be lower: The only reason UCLA would sink after its win is if the committee rewarded Texas for its overall résumé. The Longhorns aren’t ranked as high as UCLA in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, but their schedule has been much more difficult (No. 12 vs. No. 65).
UCLA’s best win was Oct. 10 at Oregon, while Texas has three SEC road wins that were CFP Top 25 opponents at the time.Need to know: ESPN’s FPI gives UCLA less than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, at Michigan and against USC. T
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