Freddy Peralta, Tarik Skubal, Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki are among the top free agents. ESPNKiley McDanielNov 3, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseESPN MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency. Has worked for three MLB teams. Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’ Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsThe MLB offseason has officially started! As free agency begins, it’s time for our annual ranking of the top 50 free agents in the class and predicting how much money each player will get.The story of this market is threefold: Tarik Skubal is the clear top free agent, with a strong chance to break some pitcher contract records.
Meanwhile, the rest of the market is weaker than usual, and the Dec. 1 end of the current CBA deal looms. Before the last CBA expired, there was a flurry of activity or largely above-expectations deals. So do teams mirror that behavior? And does the lesser talent base affect that?
I have my projected spending (about $2.65 billion in guarantees) down about 12.5% from last winter’s actual spending (a little over $3 billion) due to less high-end talent.Here is a quick look at what else you need to know for these rankings and projections.Free agents are ranked by the size of their projected guaranteed contracts plus the posting fee, not the quality of the player. I explain in the blurb when I’m projecting a contract that’s not the biggest guarantee they will be offered, normally if the player had a down season and wants to hit the market next winter on better terms. The contract projections are a mix of my opinions and those of agents and executives, but the goal is to predict what will happen, not decide what each player is worth.The four projected candidates from Japan’s NPB and South Korea’s KBO have already been posted as their 45-day window will be open past the extremely likely Dec. 1 lockout, so there isn’t any guessing about when or if they will be posted as there normally is at this juncture of the offseason.One other term to know is the qualifying offer (QO): Teams can offer an eligible free agent a one-year, $23.15 million deal, and if they turn it down and sign with another team, the original team gets compensation. If a player gets a QO and turns it down, it normally negatively affects their market, so I’ve noted it for players below.For the players who landed big league deals last winter, I projected 9% more in guarantees than they got, but that was driven more by those players signing for 6% fewer guaranteed years than I projected, with a number of higher-end free agents doing a version of what Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette ultimately did, taking AAV instead of years.Now, it’s time for our rankings!1.
Tarik Skubal, LHSP2026 team: Los Angeles Dodgers2027 Opening Day age: 30Projected contract/QO: eight years, $352 million (44 AAV), not eligible for QOAs the playoffs began, I polled 27 industry insiders about Skubal’s contract and got an average projection of eight years, $355 million (44.6 AAV), with 59% of projections landing just above the all-time pitcher guaranteed money record of $325 million (by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, over 12 years) and the big, round number of $400 million. The all-time pitcher-only AAV record is $43.3 million, set by Max Scherzer, is the other mark to beat. Seventy-eight percent of the panel thought Skubal would sign before the very likely Dec. 1 lockout.That means the smart money is a pretty quick process that ends with a contract guarantee between $300 million and $400 million and beats the Scherzer AAV mark. Over the years, I’ve also found that the total guarantee for the top player on the market tends to beat the average of these panel projections and is usually a notch higher than I think they will be, and that is how I landed at just short of $400 million; a bit over wouldn’t surprise me.My read on the market from further talks with industry people is that it’s about a two-thirds chance the guarantee will land in the $325-400 million area, and a slightly higher chance it’s a high-AAV shorter deal (such as three years, $150 million with two opt-outs) than over $400 million; call it 68%, 20%, and 12%, respectively.I ended up a bit below the panel average as a slight hedge toward the lower guarantee outcome.
Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette from last winter’s class don’t have that much in common with Skubal, and people think Skubal will go for the biggest guarantee, but it’s hard to ignore that teams seem more interested than ever in these shorter deals with elite talents.Skubal won’t win a third consecutive American League Cy Young this year, both because he was traded between leagues and because of a midseason elbow procedure that affected his innings total this year. He was basically as good on a per-inning basis this year as the past two seasons, but he missed five starts in 2026. On the flip side, some teams are wary of offering a record-breaking deal to Skubal because of his history of arm issues: Tommy John surgery in 2016 while in college, a 2022 surgery on the flexor tendon in his throwing elbow and a 2026 procedure to remove a loose elbow particle. Add in that he’s turning 30 years old in November and a number of teams just won’t offer a retail price on a long deal to any pitcher with those risk factors.As covered in that panel piece, the usual suspects are believed to be at the front of the line for Skubal: The Dodgers and Mets are the primary bidders, the Tigers are monitoring for a discount, the Yankees are thinking about it (and then trading from their pitching stockpile if they land Skubal), and the Angels, White Sox, and Padres are the sleepers with ownership changes behind the interest.2.
Teruaki Sato, 3B2026 team: Hanshin (NPB)2027 Opening Day age: 28Projected contract/QO: five years, $115 million (23 AAV), not eligible for QOYou’ll hear Sato compared to Munetaka Murakami because both are left-handed-hitting sluggers who are also mediocre defensive third basemen with some contact limitations. The general consensus is Murakami’s raw power is an 80 and Sato’s is a 70 on the 20-80 scale, so a notch lower, but still enough to have 30-plus-homer potential in the States.Sato also has had some throwing issues (both accuracy and inconsistent strength, though it’s a 55-grade arm at times), likely pushing him to a corner-outfield spot, but first base is also an option. He should clear the four years Kazuma Okamoto got last year, and most think Sato will also clear $20 million AAV. Sato’s market is helped by his similar profile to Murakami and Okamoto, who both had success in their rookie seasons.The main question is whether the weaker position player class means that he can get to six years and/or $25 million in AAV; I have him just missing both, but wouldn’t rule out him reaching both.
This contract would mean the signing team sends $19.125 million in posting fees to Hanshin, making a full outplay of just over $134 million. My guess is the upper range for Sato is the full outlay of Kyle Schwarber’s $150 million deal from last winter; Schwarber is a very proven player and a similar type, even though he hit the market for his age-33 season compared with Sato before his age-28 season.3. Freddy Peralta, RHSP2026 team: Tampa Bay Rays2027 Opening Day age: 30Projected contract/QO: four years, $96 million (24 AAV), not eligible for QOPeralta was traded from the Brewers to the Mets last winter and had a tough half-season in New York, with a 4.99 ERA fueled by increases in walk and home run rates. His peripherals improved after a deadline deal to Tampa Bay, putting up a 3.25 ERA in 10 regular-season starts and a 2.95 ERA in five postseason appearances.
His peripherals were better, but only incrementally so and with a lower strikeout rate with the Rays; the big change was throwing more changeups and fewer sliders.Peralta is showing some signs of age, and he’s not that big, but he has a long track record of midrotation performance and 14 pla
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