playHeather DinichOct 27, 2026, 07:00 AM ETMultiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsAs damaging as Week 8 was to the Big 12’s hopes of getting multiple teams into the College Football Playoff, here’s the thing: BYU and Utah could still both get in as a Big 12 champ and runner-up.Follow this: BYU beats Utah during the regular season. Notre Dame beats Miami and runs the table, continuing to give BYU one of the best wins in the country. BYU has regular-season victories against Utah, Notre Dame and Arizona — then loses its second game of the season to Utah in the Big 12 title game.Utah is in as the Big 12 champion. Two-loss BYU has regular-season wins against the Big 12 champ and Notre Dame.And you thought you had it all figured out.That’s what the Bubble Watch is for.Below you’ll find each of the Power 4 conferences broken up into categories.
The dreaded category of “Out” wishes teams with at least three losses better luck next year. You’ll also find the true contenders in the category of “In” for teams in this week’s projection or “Wrong side of the bubble” for those just outside of the bracket. In some cases, it’s still “Too early to tell,” so we’ve also aptly named a category for those teams that still have a shot.This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 6 BracketACCSpotlight: Miami.
The Hurricanes remain the obvious choice for the No. 1 spot in the latest projection; it’s one of the few stable positions in this otherwise wild season so far. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, no team in the country has a better chance to reach the playoff (97.4%). Miami is No. 1 nationally in scoring offense (49 points per game) and No. 11 in scoring defense (15.3 PPG). Its opponents have won 64.1% of their games, which ranks No. 31, and Miami is No. 3 in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
But ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) still projects the Hurricanes to lose a close one at Notre Dame on Nov. 7. Should that happen, it won’t matter if the Canes win the ACC; but if they don’t, a two-loss ACC runner-up will open the door for debate.The enigma: SMU. Don’t sleep on the 6-1 Mustangs, who just hammered Cal 59-20 for a fourth straight victory. SMU still has two major opportunities looming: Nov. 14 versus Wake Forest and Nov. 21 at Notre Dame.
SMU could finish as a one-loss ACC champ with three wins against CFP top 25 teams (Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Miami, in the ACC title game). Or the Mustangs could finish as a two-loss ACC runner-up with a win against Notre Dame. What if Notre Dame beats Miami and SMU beats Notre Dame? Multiple scenarios remain to keep both ACC championship game participants in the mix.If the playoff were todayWould be in: MiamiWrong side of the bubble: Wake ForestToo early to tell: Duke, SMU, Virginia TechOut: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Pitt, Stanford, Virginia, SyracuseBig 12Spotlight: Utah.
The Utes earned their first win against a ranked opponent — and Houston also was the first team they beat with a winning record. The Utes were still ranked behind BYU in the latest projection because BYU’s wins against Notre Dame and Arizona would likely be valued more in the committee meeting room than Utah’s undefeated record against what is the worst schedule of any of the contenders. Utah’s No. 89 schedule strength ranks last in the Big 12. Utah can change that significantly over the next three weeks, though, with games at Cincinnati, versus BYU and at Arizona.
With two of those three on the road and back-to-back games against ranked opponents, Utah can legitimize its playoff hopes — or tumble out quickly.The enigma: Arizona. The one-loss Wildcats have stayed quietly in the conversation but need to beef up their résumé to be taken more seriously by committee members. They lost the biggest game they played — Sept. 12 at BYU — and don’t have a win against a ranked opponent. Arizona’s No. 76 schedule strength ranks No. 14 in the Big 12.
It has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game, however, behind Utah, BYU and Texas Tech. The Wildcats will face Texas Tech on Saturday and Utah on Nov. 14. The FPI gives Arizona less than a 50% chance to win both of those games, but if the Wildcats run the table, the Big 12’s playoff picture will change — again.If the playoff were todayWould be in: BYU, UtahWrong side of the bubble: Texas Tech, ArizonaToo early to tell: Cincinnati, Houston, Oklahoma StateOut: Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, UCF, West VirginiaBig TenSpotlight: UCLA. Yes, the Bruins are undefeated and in the midst of the most remarkable turnaround of the campaign after winning just three games last season.
But the film doesn’t match the record, and that’s something the coaches and former players in the committee meeting room are likely to point out. UCLA is No. 18 in total efficiency and No. 41 in offensive efficiency. Backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach just completed his second start, and he has thrown two touchdowns and one interception. The committee will give the Bruins credit for continuing to find ways to win — and they should beat Nevada on Halloween and improve to 7-0 heading into the first committee ranking of the season.
But road trips to Minnesota and Michigan next month will reveal whether UCLA’s offense can keep it up.The enigma: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a mystery at quarterback until proven otherwise, and the selection committee will have one game of real data without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin to evaluate before its first ranking. So, what happens if Ohio State falls at USC after having a bye week to prepare? It’s not as if teams get a hall pass to lose because of an injury, but the committee will take it into account if Ohio State drops a cross-country game with a true freshman making his first start against a struggling but talented team.
How that contest unfolds will matter, but the bottom line is that Ohio State needs to look like a national title contender to be ranked one by the committee.If the playoff were todayWould be in: Ohio State, Indiana, UCLAWrong side of the bubble: NoneToo early to tell: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, USC, WisconsinOut: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, WashingtonSECSpotlight: Georgia. Saturday’s game against Florida in Atlanta will reveal whether Georgia’s Oct. 17 home loss to Auburn was an anomaly or a more accurate indication of the Bulldogs’ place in the playoff. Georgia’s Oct. 10 win at Alabama is its lone victory against a ranked opponent. And the Crimson Tide are only the second team Georgia has defeated with a winning record (along with 4-3 Oklahoma).
The back half of the season is far more challenging for the Dawgs, with three straight games looming against ranked teams (Florida, at Ole Miss and Nov. 14 versus Missouri). Georgia ranks No. 3 in the country in total efficiency; but it is No. 34 in strength of schedule, last in the SEC. Georgia has the best chance of any team to reach the SEC title game (69.2%), followed by Kentucky (32.8%).The enigma: Florida. If the Gators beat Georgia on Saturday, they will have one of the best résumés, with wins against Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia.
That would likely be enough for the selection committee to catapult the Gators into their first CFP ranking and honor the head-to-head victories against that trio. Following Florida’s 52-28 drubbing of Ole Miss on Sept. 26, the Gators had a 4-0 start and appeared poised at a chance for a special season. But back-to-back losses to Missouri and South Carolina raised concerns about Florida’s playoff legitimacy. The Gators’ win at Texas, though, was impactful, but
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