playBradford DoolittleOct 21, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWelcome to the small-market World Series. This is a theme you’re likely to encounter a lot this week, as the momentum toward this Rays-Brewers showdown gathers.To be sure, there are a number of similarities between the Brewers and Rays, but those similarities are mostly top-line items. The sub-traits beneath them are very different.Take their markets, for example. They are small in different ways.
By metro population figures and Major League Baseball’s internal market score, Milwaukee is at the bottom of the league, while Tampa Bay ranks closer to the middle.But if you look at revenue, their places flip. The Milwaukee metro area might be small, but the Brewers are a regional franchise that has fans all over Wisconsin.It’s a similar situation on the field. Both clubs have become known for pivoting away from the onslaught of strikeouts and home runs in today’s game. But when you dig a bit deeper, it’s clear they took different routes to get to the Fall Classic.This series isn’t alluring because of how the teams are alike, but how they are different.
And this is why this promises to be a tremendously entertaining matchup between two legit No. 1 seeds, one in which two of the game’s best managers — Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash and Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy — might play outsized roles.So how are they different?Long ball liberationThis was the theme of a piece I wrote about the Brewers’ offense at the outset of the playoffs. It isn’t that Milwaukee is a small-ball offense; it’s that the Brewers play like a small-ball offense when the situation warrants. But when they need to muscle up, they are able to do that. These aren’t the 1980s Cardinals of Willie McGee and Vince Coleman, even if the Brewers also feature a second baseman who drove in 100 runs (Brice Turang, while Tom Herr did it for those St.
Louis teams).The key stat that will spur many to lump the Milwaukee and Tampa Bay offenses together is this: The Rays ranked 29th in percentage of runs coming via the homer, ahead of only the Brewers. This is indeed how they are most similar — neither club relies on homers to score.But while both teams have power, they have different strategies about when to emphasize it. The Rays ranked 13th in slugging with the bases empty, but 17th with men on base. The Brewers ranked 24th in slugging with the bases empty, but fifth with men on base.
Similar results, different paths. For both clubs, it’s truer to say that they don’t rely on homers than to say they can’t hit them.During the playoffs, both teams have featured more or less balanced offenses, at least in relation to the rest of the playoff field. The Brewers have scored via the long ball 35% of the time; the Rays are at 31%, both below the overall playoff average of 38%. Both rank in the top half of playoff teams in runs per game both with, and without, home runs.Hitting with the bases emptyBoth teams hit .258 during the regular season, with the Brewers topping the majors once you go out a fourth decimal point.
Batting averages! Old school approaches! Yes, but the routes these offenses take to the same average could hardly be more different. Once again, we can see this vividly in how the offenses approach bases-empty situations.With no one on base, the Brewers had by far the lowest swing rate in the majors (42.5%); the Rays were 15th (47.1%).
The Brewers saw the most pitches in those spots (4.07 pitches per plate appearance); the Rays were 28th (3.82). The Rays had the second-best rate of putting the ball in play (78.2%), while the Brewers had the second-best BABIP (.306).The Rays are all about ambushing early in the count, especially with no one on base, which in part translates to their high slugging percentage in those situations even though their overall hard-hit rate is nearly at the bottom of the majors. The Brewers, on the other hand, grind. When no one is on base, the top priority is to change that and get to first base.Hitting with runners on baseHere we’re talking about the ability to alter approaches with runners on base.
These are the two best teams in the majors at doing this. The Brewers led the majors with an RBI rate of 18.9% (percentage of runners on base driven in); the Rays were second at 18.1%.The difference in their success rates means the Brewers drove in 73.1 runs above expectation, while the Rays were at 45.1.So these are the two best teams at cashing in their baserunners, but once again, there are differences in how they do this. The Rays get even more aggressive, with their rock-bottom pitches-per-plate-appearance figure dropping to 3.69. They put the ball in play but do so with the lowest isolated power figure (.135) in the majors.
The Brewers, on the other hand, remain patient, but their slugging and isolated power indicators go up, as does their home run rate.If there is a lesson here for other teams when it comes to succeeding in RISP situations, it might lie in another common trait between the Rays and Brewers: swing path. The Brewers hit the ball harder more often than the Rays, who seem to actually favor lower exit velocities in their style of play, at least for some of their players. But however the ball comes off the bat, for both of these teams it’s likely to come in the form of a grounder or line drive. The Rays (29th) and Brewers (30th) have the two lowest average launch angles in baseball.SpeedBoth clubs are full of plus runners who pressure opposing defenses on the bases and run down balls in the field.The Rays ranked second in steals and steal attempts per opportunity; the Brewers were fifth and sixth in those columns.
They were both successful around 75% of the time, with the Rays ranking 18th and the Brewers 19th. Thus, both clubs are willing to accept a few caught stealing when it comes to pressuring the opponent.This similar penchant for derring-do on steals doesn’t translate to running the bases in general, though. The more-aggressive Rays took the extra base 42% of the time, right at the MLB average, while the Brewers were at 41%. Still, only three teams made more outs while running the bases than Tampa Bay (54); the Brewers were tied for 21st (28).PitchingThese are two of the best pitching staffs in baseball and two of the best at overall run prevention.
In the playoffs, the Rays’ rotation has outperformed every other team’s starters, largely because of how hot Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta have gotten.The Brewers have gotten less from their starters, but the dominance of their bullpen has been one of the postseason’s leading narratives. Runs will be hard to come by in the World Series.There are stark differences in collective emphasis between the two staffs. The Brewers led the majors in strikeout rate; the Rays led in walk rate. Perhaps due to their focus on strike-throwing, the Rays were more susceptible to the long ball.
If Milwaukee is able to power up situationally as I’ve suggested, this might be the series to do so.In terms of the rate of pitches in the zone, Milwaukee actually ranked higher (second) than Tampa Bay (third). The Rays get away with being in the zone so much because they allowed the third-lowest exit velocity this season and the lowest opposing BABIP. The Brewers do it by missing bats.The real difference that will jump out is the Rays’ much-touted use of the changeup, by far the highest usage in the majors. The Brewers led the majors in hard stuff — two-seamers, four-seamers, cutters.Two great pitching staffs with very different approaches against two contrasting styles of offense.
It’s a seamhead’s dream matchup.Home-field edgeThe Rays and Brewers tied for the MLB lead with 55 home wins during the regular season. They are a combined 8-1 at home during the postseason. One difference between these similar levels of home dominance is attendance — the Br
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