playPamela MaldonadoOct 20, 2026, 06:47 AM ETClosePamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWeek 7 of the college football season was a wild one with multiple upsets and the chaos only continued, especially in the SEC. In the Big Ten, one quarterback was injured and suddenly we’re having a very different Heisman conversation. Independent Notre Dame is the new title favorite, and half of the remaining undefeated teams are in the Big 12. There’s a lot to sort through, but I’m not buying everything the odds are selling.Let’s take a look at the Heisman odds, national championship market plus conference outlooks as we get ready to head into Week 8.Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.Heisman market watchJeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (-110)Last week: -220The Heisman favorite’s odds moved after the news that Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin will miss time.
Okay, I get the adjustment. Smith has been spectacular with 984 yards and 12 touchdowns through seven games, often while facing double and even triple coverage.But somebody still has to get him the football.Smith can get open, win through contact and make difficult catches, but somebody still has to recognize the matchup and deliver a catchable ball. Freshman Luke Fahey has thrown 13 passes, two touchdowns and two interceptions. We don’t really know what we’re getting here.
The good news? Smith has already given voters plenty to work with. If Fahey keeps Smith involved and Ohio State keeps winning, I’m not ready to move off Smith.Voters may excuse one quiet game, but probably won’t forgive a month of reduced production or multiple losses. If Smith continues stacking stats anyway, the quarterback change could even strengthen his case: he would be carrying the offense, not merely benefiting from it.Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (+290)Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+650)Last week: 10-1 and 15-1, respectivelySayin’s injury has reopened a race that looked finished.
Mensah is now the second favorite because Miami is unbeaten, holds the No. 1 spot in the rankings and gives you very little to complain about with 18 touchdowns, one interception and an 81% completion rate. His defining opportunity comes at Notre Dame in a few weeks.Chambliss, our preseason pick, has climbed from 15-to-1 last week to third despite Ole Miss already having a loss. He has 20 total touchdowns and upcoming games at Texas, against Georgia and at Oklahoma give him plenty of chances to remind everybody why we liked him in the first place. If Smith’s production slips, both quarterbacks can close but Chambliss has more opportunities to create major Heisman moments.CFP market watchNotre Dame jump Ohio State in national championship oddsThe Fighting Irish inherited the top spot when Ohio State was downgraded following Sayin’s injury.
Notre Dame lost by four on the road to undefeated BYU and actually gained more yards, so the market didn’t treat it as disqualifying. But nothing about that performance has me thinking, ‘yep, there’s your national champion.’If anything, it’s a good reminder that title odds aren’t rankings. Miami is No. 1 but +600 to win the title; BYU is No. 2 but +4500. Sportsbooks are pricing how teams project against elite playoff opponents, not rewarding current records.Notre Dame at +450 says the market still trusts its overall roster and ceiling.
I would not buy that number, though. The Irish still have Miami in Week 10, and an offense that averaged 5.3 yards per pass and 3.8 per rush against BYU doesn’t deserve to be priced as clearly superior to Georgia or Miami.The headline is really Ohio State’s demotion, not Notre Dame’s promotion.Six undefeated teams remain, three are in the Big 12. Now what?The Big 12 has three undefeated teams, but they are three different kinds of undefeated. The schedule could allow two of them to reach the conference championship without a loss.Texas Tech avoids both BYU and Utah, while the Cougars and Utes play each other on Nov. 7.
That means the conference may not cannibalize itself the way we’ve seen with the SEC. Texas Tech and the BYU-Utah winner could conceivably arrive at the Big 12 title game undefeated, turning the Big 12 into a legitimate two-bid playoff conversation.Here’s where I land on the three:BYU has the best resume after beating Notre Dame with the most balanced profile. Texas Tech has the cleanest path and the best defense, but its quarterback play is the biggest postseason concern. Utah has the best offensive ceiling and the best individual quarterback play, but the weakest defense of the three.Prediction: Texas Tech to make the playoff at -110The best way to bet the Big 12 is through conference and playoff markets, not the national championship.
BYU and Texas Tech at +4500 and Utah at +5800 still require one of them to beat several better-quality teams when the playoff actually begins. Those are big prices, and I still need a reason to believe they can actually do it.For Texas Tech to make the playoff, the remaining schedule creates a credible path to the Big 12 title game. Tech could be undefeated by that point, but even a 12-1 loss there could leave it with an at-large path. If you want to get a little greedy, Texas Tech to finish the regular season undefeated at +445 is more attractive than BYU +360 or Utah +650 because Tech avoids the other two contenders, though their test could be going on the road at Oklahoma State in Week 11.BYU is the most-proven team as of now, Utah has the best quarterback, but Texas Tech has the best path for bettors.
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