playESPN staffOct 19, 2026, 07:00 AM ETMultiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWelcome back to the NBA. Just in case you didn’t hear:Giannis Antetokounmpo is (finally) in Miami; Jaylen Brown (stunningly) is in Philadelphia; Ja Morant (somewhat stunningly) is in Portland; Kawhi Leonard is back in Toronto (it took a bit); LaMelo Ball is joining forces with Anthony Edwards in Minnesota’s backcourt (it might take a bit); and the Lakers got a new lob threat for Luka Doncic (it worked last time): those major moves, plus the addition of a deep 2026 rookie class.Oh. And a 41-year-old legend defying Father Time changed coasts, setting up the league’s newest superteam, a major conference shift and potentially one of the most exciting seasons in recent history. Got all that?On the eve of opening night, ESPN’s NBA insiders and analysts are breaking down the stars and storylines that will shape 2026-27 and the run through the postseason.Note: Team rankings are based on where members of our panel (ESPN’s Jamal Collier, Michael C.
Wright, Tim MacMahon, Dave McMenamin, Vincent Goodwill, Zach Kram, Brian Windhorst, Ben Golliver, Ramona Shelburne, Kris Rhim, Baxter Holmes and Anthony Slater) think teams belong heading into this season.Jump to a team: ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GS HOU | IND | LAC | LAL | MEM MIA | MIL | MIN | NO | NY OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX | POR SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS1. Oklahoma City ThunderSchedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9% Projected wins: 60.7Biggest thing we’ll be talking about this season: The Thunder still have arguably the NBA’s deepest roster despite the departures of a trio of championship-winning role players (Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins) via a series of salary-shedding summer trades. Back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s supporting cast is loaded with talent, starting with All-NBA sidekicks Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain are talented young players to whom the Thunder are eager to give more minutes.
Rookie first-rounders Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz both impressed during the preseason, but it will be difficult for them to earn immediate regular roles because OKC’s rotation is so crowded. — Tim MacMahonBiggest strength: Oklahoma City has the league’s top-ranked defense by a significant margin the last two seasons. The departure of Dort is a hit, but the Thunder still have a trio of recent All-Defensive selections (Wallace, Williams and Alex Caruso) to harass opposing perimeter stars. Holmgren is the most dominant defensive force in the league other than a certain Frenchman in San Antonio. The Thunder’s ability to create turnovers fuels Oklahoma City’s offense, and that aspect of the game should be upgraded with an increasing role for Wallace, last season’s steals leader, and Williams’ return to health. — MacMahonBiggest weakness: Rebounding is the biggest nit to pick with Oklahoma City, which ranked 22nd in the league with a 49.0% rebounding rate last season.
The Thunder typically start a big lineup with a pair of 7-footers (Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein), but one blemish with the roster is that the size thins out at power forward behind Holmgren, whose lack of bulk is occasionally exposed in battles for rebounds. — MacMahonBold prediction: The Thunder finish second — not first — in defensive rating. Oklahoma City led the league in this stat by wide margins in the last two seasons, finishing 2.5 points ahead of second place in 2024-25 and 2.4 points ahead of second place in 2025-26. But the Thunder lost Dort over the summer and will now rely on more defensive targets — McCain and the young guys — than in previous seasons, at the same time that Victor Wembanyama’s Spurs could surpass them for the top spot on the defensive leaderboard. — Zach KramNumber to watch: 33%. In the 2024-25 regular season, when the Thunder went 68-14 and set a point differential record en route to the championship, they won 83% of their games.
In 2025-26, counting both regular season and playoffs, they did slightly better by winning 84% of their games — if you don’t count their 4-8 record against the Spurs. But those 12 games at a 33% winning percentage — 1-4 in the regular season, 3-4 in the conference finals — were the most important of the Thunder’s season, as they prevented Oklahoma City from returning to the Finals. — KramFantasy nugget: Wallace recorded 150 steals in 77 games last season despite averaging just 26.6 MPG. With Dort and Joe gone, he could see additional playing time. Wallace is being drafted just inside 150, making him particularly appealing for managers targeting steals late in category leagues.
Increased minutes could also improve his 3-point production, although his scoring remains limited. — Eric MoodyWhat Bobby Marks is watching: The Clippers. For a second consecutive season, Oklahoma City could have a lottery pick despite playing deep into the playoffs. The Thunder have two of the most favorable first-round picks of the Clippers, Denver (if Nos. 6-30) and their own. The Thunder also have a first from San Antonio if it falls between 17 and 30.
The first from the Clippers was acquired as part of the James Harden trade with Philadelphia. The BPI projects LA to have the league’s fifth-worst record.BPI first-round projection: No. 5 (via LAC), No. 24 (via DEN), No. 29 (via SA)2. San Antonio SpursSchedule | Roster | Best bet | Offseason recap Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9% Projected wins: 59.1Biggest thing we’ll be talking about this season: At least early on, San Antonio’s experimentation with three-guard lineups featuring De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle will generate most of the conversations concerning the Spurs. But other interesting lineups could be on the horizon with Spurs coach Mitch Johnson explaining, “That’s just part of natural evolution that will take some time.
But it’s time to also push forward appropriately.” Victor Wembanyama serves as the linchpin driving potential innovation in San Antonio. “Victor allows you to think outside the box in almost any way you want to,” Johnson explained. — Michael C. WrightBiggest strength: Fox, Harper and Castle represent arguably the most talented backcourt trio in the league, and the overall roster is teeming with so much depth the Spurs will be forced to make difficult decisions regarding lineups. If San Antonio opts to start the guard trio regularly, its bench will be led by Julian Champagnie, who set a franchise record for made 3-pointers last season, and Keldon Johnson, the reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year. — WrightBiggest weakness: Outside of Wembanyama, free agent addition Tobias Harris and backup center Luke Kornet, San Antonio is relatively thin in the frontcourt.
First-round pick Tarris Reed Jr. has shown promise throughout training camp and the preseason and might have a chance to fill in at center when frontcourt depth is thinned by injuries or rest days for Wembanyama or Kornet. — WrightBold prediction: Wembanyama records the NBA’s first quadruple-double since David Robinson in 1994, and just the fifth in recorded history. I also made this prediction last season and didn’t come all that close to hitting, but I trust Wembanyama enough to try again. He has already reached double-digit assists three times in his career and double-digit blocks three times (counting playoffs), so he just needs to combine those achievable feats in the same game. — KramNumber to watch: 17.0. The Spurs posted a plus-17.0 net rating with Wembanyama on the floor last year, per NBA Advanced Stats.
That was the second-best mark among all rotation players, and the only one in the top six that didn’t belong to a Thunder player: Alex Caruso led the league in this stat, followed by Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell and Isaiah Hartenstein. — KramFantasy nugget: Castle averaged 16.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 7.4 APG
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