playBen SolakOct 13, 2026, 06:40 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsAre you excited for NFL Week 6? Sure, Bills-Rams just ended like eight hours ago. But the Seahawks and Broncos are playing in another iteration of the Russell Wilson bowl on Thursday!
The Texans’ season hangs on the brink against the Jaguars in London on Sunday morning. Caleb Williams should be back for the Bears against the Falcons Sunday afternoon! And Micah Parsons … apparently won’t play in his revenge game against the Cowboys on Sunday night. Whatever.Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I’ll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think.
These aren’t full-scale predictions. They aren’t concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it’ll probably take the next few games to find out.
And at the bottom, you’ll find a few extra half-thoughts … just those little inklings I’m unable to shake.Subscribe: ‘ESPN’s Leaguewide’This week, I’ll start with a quarterback change I’m expecting to see soon, touch on a couple of defenses in need of big talent lifts, and anticipate an improvement for an undefeated team. Here are seven things I think ahead of Week 6.Jump to: One more start for Cousins? Seahawks need more than Charbonnet? Two head coaches in trouble?
Murray, Vikings rounding into form? Cowboys need to sit some vets? Time for the Cards to look at Beck? Massive issues in the Bears’ secondary?
Some extra inklingsI think … Kirk Cousins will get one more start before Fernando Mendoza timeCousins has been totally solid for the Raiders this season. Relative to expectation and contract, there has been nothing disappointing about his play.That said, the Patriots went after him Sunday. New England defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr blitzed Cousins on 41.2% of his first-half dropbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and got a 53% pressure rate and two sacks for his trouble.
Although Cousins is a wily veteran capable of identifying blitzes and carving them up with hot routes, he’s also 38 years old and was not particularly mobile even a decade ago, let alone now.The Patriots’ game plan was apparent and smart. With starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III both unavailable due to injuries and a couple of depth corners also laid up, Kuhr tried to break the Raiders’ passing game at the pocket before Cousins could attack his inexperienced cover men. On paper, it didn’t work too great — Cousins was 10-for-15 with 123 yards and a score through two quarters. But it got the Patriots off the field when they needed it.Here’s a Cover 0 snap on third-and-5.
Cousins can’t backpedal fast enough to buy time on the pressure and can’t get enough arm into the throw to drive it before the cornerback arrives. Charles Woods, the third-year corner making his first career start, has plenty of time to arrive for the pass breakup.https://t.co/ir9dwB4k81— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 13, 2026 Here’s an extremely similar look on third-and-14 — already a tough down to handle. Cousins hangs a vertical ball up for Tre Tucker against Kindle Vildor, who was called up from the Pats’ practice squad. It’s the right read and an open throw, but the ball is uncatchable.https://t.co/8uir46Fc4l— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 13, 2026 Now, a guy should not be benched for an uncatchable third-and-14 heave against Cover 0.
But Kuhr was able to deploy this approach because he knew Cousins couldn’t burn him with escapability and play extension. Once Kuhr manufactured the free rusher, he could tell his young corners with total confidence that the ball would come out fast. Drive on the first break. Play aggressive, attack the catch point.
Don’t worry about eyes in the backfield or long-developing routes — those won’t happen.Cousins has 10 dropbacks on the season in which he, at any point, starts to scramble. Only Michael Penix Jr., Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love have fewer. He has just three actual scrambles (dropbacks on which he crosses the line of scrimmage to run). Only 7.6% of his throws have come with him on the move (only Stafford and Jared Goff have lower percentages), and his average speed at release of 2.85 mph, per Next Gen Stats, is the lowest of all passers this season.Cousins simply does not move.
Quarterbacks such as Stafford, Goff and Penix have much bigger arms to get away with this play style, while quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow have their elite processing and accuracy to get away with it. At his age, Cousins doesn’t have those cardinal traits. He has enough arm, and he certainly has plus accuracy and processing. But it’s not enough to tip the scales back in his favor.This has not been a death knell for the Raiders through five weeks, as Cousins is 10th in the league in EPA per pressured dropback and 11th in success rate on pressured dropbacks.
He’s making do with what he has. But the limitation is apparent, and future opponents will attack it. The Raiders have the Bills in Week 6, the Rams in Week 7 and the Jets in Week 8. The Rams and Jets are above average in blitz rate on the season, and the Bills are right around average.
They’re going to come after Cousins and make the bet Kuhr did — that eventually the Raiders’ lack of a running game will stick them in third-and-long, and those blitzes will create early and errant throws.The Raiders might have a solution to this problem: the spry legs of Mendoza that have done little but warm a bench through five weeks.I have no doubt that the Raiders will initially be worse against pressures and blitzes when they first deploy Mendoza. He is a rookie and lacks the Spidey-sense that Cousins has honed over a decade-plus of NFL football. Mendoza will take bad sacks and throw the ball into coverage traps because that’s what rookies do.But he’ll also move. He will create second-reaction throws that have yet to exist in this offense.
He’ll allow head coach Klint Kubiak to dust off the rollout sections of his playbook, which were so integral for Sam Darnold in Seattle but have been shelved for Cousins in Vegas. Mendoza is not known as an elite mover, but he’s totally functional — and most importantly, leagues ahead of Cousins.To quickly pivot from Cousins to Mendoza might feel like an early abandonment of a well-laid developmental plan. But I would argue that the pivot is justified. The Raiders are currently 3-2 in a suddenly much-more-winnable AFC West than previously believed.
Yes, the Chiefs are 4-0 — but the Raiders went neck-and-neck with them in Week 4, and both the Broncos (3-2) and Chargers (0-5) have been clearly worse than Las Vegas through five weeks. The 1.5 games back should not deter the Raiders from pushing for the division — and in that effort, potentially landing a wild-card berth regardless.I won’t be too upset if they keep riding the Cousins train. Like I said, the lack of mobility is a problem but not one that has totally hamstrung an otherwise solid passing attack. The Raiders could defensibly stick with Cousins for another month or two and still prioritize Mendoza’s development over anything else.
After all, benching Cousins after Week 6 would give Mendoza to the Rams and (presumably) Myles Garrett in Week 7 — that’s a stiff ask.But it’s hard to win those first three games … then lose two … and not wonder if the team is closer to contention than expected. And then not wonder whether Mendoza’s timeline should be accelerated to match.I think … the Seahawks have too many eggs in the Zach Charbonnet basketLast season, Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 15.1% of the team’s total touches. That was the fourth-highest number for a non-running back leaguewide. His 36% tar
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