playHeather DinichOct 13, 2026, 07:00 AM ETMultiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsThis is not a college basketball bubble watch.And yet, Indiana, Kentucky and UCLA appearing in the same sentence might make you do a double take. (Oh, and 4-1 Duke is the reigning ACC champ.)You’re still in the right place, college football fans, and so are Kentucky and UCLA — at least for now.With Texas, Alabama and LSU losing in Week 6 and undefeated UCLA winning at Oregon, the door opened for some teams to enter the College Football Playoff conversation. Meanwhile, the SEC no longer owns half the bracket, as it is down to four teams that would be in today: Georgia, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss.In the ACC, Miami still stands alone. But the Big 12 is a crowded race, with BYU, Utah and Texas Tech all jockeying for position. The Big Ten is a big question mark beyond Ohio State and Indiana, with both Los Angeles schools still in the mix and eight teams with one or fewer losses.So, how do they all stack up behind newly No. 1-ranked Georgia?Below you’ll find each of the Power 4 conferences broken up into categories.
The dreaded “Out” wishes teams with at least three losses better luck next year. In some cases, it’s simply “Too early to tell,” so we’ve also aptly named a category that includes each team that can still technically win its Power 4 conference. You’ll also find the true contenders in “Would be in” for teams in this week’s projection, and “Wrong side of the bubble” is for those just outside of the bracket.This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 6 BracketACCSpotlight: Miami.
The Hurricanes have the second-best chance in the country to reach the CFP (94.7%), behind Georgia (95.7%). While it’s fair to point out some weaknesses in Miami’s No. 64-ranked schedule, the selection committee also would note that its opponents have a winning percentage of 68.4%, which ranks No. 25 in the country. The Canes’ biggest asset right now is simply what they’re putting on film: the No. 1 scoring offense (49.6 points per game), the No. 1 scoring defense (9.8 PPG), a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback in Darian Mensah and some of the nation’s most elite skill players around him. Miami had a bye week to prepare for this Saturday’s home game against Florida State, but the reality is its place in the pecking order will be determined on Nov. 7 at Notre Dame.The enigma: Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons are 5-1, with their lone loss to Miami. Their schedule has gone undervalued nationally, with three road wins against what is currently the No. 24-most-difficult schedule in the country. Wake Forest is No. 12 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which calculates that the average top 25 team would have a 53.1% chance to achieve the same 5-1 record against the Deacons’ schedule. The question is whether Wake Forest can keep it up — and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) says it can, giving the Deacs at least a 50% chance to win each of their remaining games.
That’s why the most likely matchup in the ACC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics, is a rematch between Miami and Wake Forest.If the playoff were todayWould be in: MiamiWrong side of the bubble: NoneToo early to tell: Duke, Wake Forest, Pitt, SMU, Clemson, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia TechOut: Syracuse, Boston College, Cal, Stanford, NC State, Florida State, Louisville, Georgia TechBig 12Spotlight: Utah. The Utes are passing the eye test and rank No. 7 nationally in total efficiency — well above No. 26 Texas Tech, which was a playoff team last season but hasn’t looked as formidable this campaign. The more comparable team is BYU, and this will be settled on the field Nov. 7, when the Utes host the Cougars. For now, Utah’s biggest obstacle is its No. 114-ranked schedule, which would be glaring in the committee meeting room.
Its opponents’ winning percentage (47.4%) ranks No. 112 in the country. How much of that is factored into Utah having the nation’s No. 6 scoring offense (42.8 PPG) and No. 7 scoring defense (13.0 PPG)? Devon Dampier has helped the Utes separate from some of the other contenders, as he ranks No. 19 in QBR (81.0) and has 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions.The enigma: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are undefeated, but it’s hard to tell if they’re a playoff team for the second straight season.
They’ve looked mostly average against subpar teams: Abilene Christian is a 3-4 FCS team, Conference USA’s Sam Houston is 1-4 and Colorado is 2-3. The Red Raiders’ best win was on Sept. 18 against Houston, which is a top 25 opponent. Quarterback Will Hammond has as many passing touchdowns (five) as he does interceptions. Texas Tech doesn’t play BYU or Utah during the regular season, though, so its toughest remaining opponent might be Oklahoma State at Stillwater on Nov. 14.
The FPI gives the Red Raiders at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. So, even if Texas Tech isn’t the best team in the Big 12, it has the easiest path back to the conference championship game.If the playoff were todayWould be in: BYU, UtahWrong side of the bubble: Texas TechToo early to tell: Baylor, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Houston, Cincinnati, Arizona State, Kansas StateOut: West Virginia, TCU, Kansas, Colorado, UCF, Iowa StateBig TenSpotlight: Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ No. 5 spot in this week’s projected top 12 is a direct result of Texas losing to Oklahoma — after the Longhorns beat Ohio State. Yes, anyone watching the film can see that Texas is flawed, but the Longhorns also have found a way to earn what remains one of the best résumés in the country.
Because Ohio State and Texas are still one-loss teams — and because Texas has two wins against top 25 teams, including one on the road against Tennessee — the committee would likely honor the Week 2 head-to-head result. Texas is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record, while Ohio State is No. 15. The Longhorns also have played the No. 4-ranked schedule to date, while Ohio State has faced the No. 29 schedule. Those schedule metrics would have some committee members further honoring that head-to-head result, along with the fact that Ohio State and Texas are both in the top eight in total efficiency.
If Ohio State wins at Indiana on Saturday, though, and adds a second ranked win to its résumé, that opens the door for the Buckeyes to leap the Longhorns.The enigma: UCLA. The Bruins are No. 3 in ESPN’s strength of record, giving the average top 25 team just a 24.8% chance to achieve the same 5-0 record against the same opponents. UCLA has three road wins, including against Cal, a cross-country 54-3 drubbing of Maryland and versus Oregon on Saturday. The problem is, there are a lot of “yeah buts” to the Bruins’ résumé.
Maryland coach Mike Locksley is on one of the hottest seats in the country. Oregon was down to its third-string quarterback. And the status of UCLA starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava (lower leg injury) is uncertain. For now, based on what the Bruins have accomplished to date, they’ve earned a spot in the playoff conversation.
And it’s not farfetched to think they might keep it a few weeks as they head into a stretch of three straight home games — and the FPI projects UCLA to win each one.If the playoff were todayWould be in: Ohio State, Indiana, UCLAWrong side of the bubble: NoneToo early to tell: Wisconsin, USC, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon, Michigan, MinnesotaOut: Michigan State, Maryland, Washington, Penn State, Rutgers, Illinois, PurdueSECSpotlight: Georgia. Saturday’s win at Alabama catapulted Georgia into the No. 1 spot in this week’s projection and also earned the Bulldogs the No. 1 ranking in ESPN’s strength of record. It drastically improved Georgia’s strength of schedule ranking, as well, lifting
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