playBen SolakCloseBen SolakESPNBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network. and Seth WalderCloseSeth WalderESPN AnalyticsSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017.
He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple AuthorsOct 11, 2026, 06:05 PM ETOpen Extended ReactionsNFL analysts Ben Solak and Seth Walder are grading deals ahead of the 2026 trade deadline, which is Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. ET.When grading trades, we evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team’s overall short- and long-term outlooks. How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision?
And how big is the impact of this decision? Both questions play a role in our grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor grade. Even with lower stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter.Here are our evaluations for the first four deals of trading season: J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, Joey Porter Jr. to the Cowboys, Cam Jurgens to the Ravens and Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Texans.
Check back through the deadline for grades on the biggest moves.Cardinals trade WR Harrison Jr. to TexansTexans get: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., 2027 seventh-round pick Cardinals get: 2027 second-round pick, 2027 sixth-round pickTexans grade: C+ Cardinals: A-Minutes after the Texans completed their 26-3 blowout win over the Titans, news broke that the rumored trade of Harrison, who was inactive Sunday because of the expected move, would be completed. The Cardinals sent him to Houston for a second-rounder and a sixth-rounder in 2027.Similar to a lot of trades for young players, there are two simple questions: How much of our opinion of Harrison should be shaped by the league’s predraft opinion of him and how much should be based on what we’ve seen from him in the NFL so far?Harrison was considered a premier wide receiver prospect and was the first non-quarterback off the board with the fourth pick in the 2024 draft. But his production has fallen well short of those expectations to date, with Harrison amassing 1,578 receiving yards over 33 career games.That equates to 1.5 yards per route run, which is in the 46th percentile among wide receivers who have run at least 15 routes per team game in that span. That number has been even worse in a small sample this season: just 0.6 yards per route run with a much higher percentage of deep fades and go routes (24%) than the previous two seasons (13%).
Harrison’s player-tracking metrics have been mediocre but not awful during his first two seasons: 47 and 54 overall in ESPN’s receiver scores (with slightly better open scores) in 2024 and 2025, respectively.Despite a rough start, the 1-4 Texans probably still believe they have a Super Bowl-caliber defense and a chance for a postseason run if they can get more talent around quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has been playing well. I don’t think that’s far-fetched despite their record. This is not the Texans’ first attempt to upgrade at wide receiver.
After second-year man Jayden Higgins suffered a torn ACL in August, Houston acquired Kayshon Boutte from the Patriots. But Boutte has managed only 1.1 yards per route run despite Nico Collins missing two games.The Texans will get Harrison for cheap for the rest of this season and next year, and they will have a fifth-year option on him for 2028. But this move is not worth it if Harrison remains the same player he has been with the Cardinals because second-round picks have real value. Receivers who average 1.5 yards per route run can be found quite easily.
The Texans are betting that Harrison can reach the upside he showed at Ohio State, including a breakout season in 2022 when Stroud was his quarterback. Having already played two-plus NFL seasons, the chances of a breakout aren’t great, but they exist.I think this trade makes sense for Arizona. The Cardinals didn’t have to trade Harrison yet, but he will be worth more to a contending team than he is to them. It’s likely his trade value would sink if they waited until the offseason to deal him.
And Michael Wilson already had established himself as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver.Ultimately, I would not have made this trade if I were the Texans because the odds of Harrison breaking out immediately feel too low to justify the compensation. But I at least understand the thought process and desire to maximize a loaded roster’s chances of making a real run to make the playoffs and win postseason games. — WalderEagles trade C Jurgens to RavensRavens get: C Cam Jurgens, 2027 seventh-round pick Eagles get: 2027 fifth-round pick, 2028 second-round pickRavens grade: D+ Eagles grade: AFirst, Tyler Linderbaum walked in free agency. Then the Ravens lost Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic to injury, suddenly leaving them without a center. Last week, Baltimore moved first-round rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane to center but evidently doesn’t see that as a long-term option.So Baltimore turned to the trade market and dealt for Jurgens.
It’s an interesting and unusual move, because Jurgens is no stopgap. He’s only 27 years old and is already on a long-term deal after signing an extension with the Eagles in 2025.Jurgens moved from center to left guard in Week 2 after the Eagles placed guard Landon Dickerson on injured reserve. It has not gone well. Jurgens ranks in the bottom three in both pass block and run block win rate at guard.
But the Ravens are trading for Jurgens to have him play center.In 2024, Jurgens was a Pro Bowl center who recorded pass block and run block win rates in the 80th and 50th percentiles, respectively. He made the Pro Bowl again in 2025, but his numbers slipped to the 65th and 39th percentile, respectively. He should be a stabilizing force for the Ravens — perhaps an average to above-average center — at what has suddenly become a position of need. But the cost is exorbitant.The Ravens are surrendering a second-round pick (plus a swap of fifth- and seventh-round picks) for the right to pay a non-premium position player market price after this season.
Jurgens is due a fully guaranteed $16 million next year. He’s due $17 million (non-guaranteed) in 2028 and 2029. Jurgens’ $17 million average per year for the duration of his contract makes him the fourth-highest-paid center in the league, behind only Linderbaum, Creed Humphrey and Aaron Brewer, per OverTheCap.com. By comparison, Connor McGovern, who had better numbers than Jurgens last season, makes a little over $13 million per year.One saving grace for Baltimore is that Jurgens’ salary is cheap this season.
The Eagles have already paid Jurgens’ option bonus, so the Ravens should be on the hook for only the remaining portion of his $1.2 million base salary.For the Eagles, the loss of Jurgens is the latest blow to an offensive line that is already down Dickerson and recently retired tackle Lane Johnson. Jurgens hadn’t played well at guard, but surely they saw him as their long-term center. Drew Kendall, who has played center after Jurgens’ shift, has been below average in both pass and run block win rate this season. But the Eagles seemed to believe this was a price too good to pass up.I understand that the Ravens rightfully believe they are Super Bowl contenders, probably want Ioane to stay and develop at guard and thought they needed to fill their gap at center.
Making a trade before the deadline to fix that issue makes sense. But almost certainly there would have been cheaper options out there than this. And the timing is odd, considering that Jurgens is currently in concussion protocol and not expected to play Sunday.So it seems like the Eagles sensed Balt
Leave a Reply