playBen SolakOct 6, 2026, 06:30 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWeek 4 of the 2026 NFL season is in the books. It was flag week in the NFL! I love a flag week.
Who doesn’t love a flag week? Referees threw 293 flags in Week 4, the most in a single week this season and in any season since 2019. My favorite flag thrower is Nathan Jones, the field judge for Carl Cheffers’ crew — I know, I know, normie pick — but he kills it every time.Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I’ll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren’t full-scale predictions; those come later.
They aren’t concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it’ll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you’ll find a few extra half-thoughts … just those little inklings I’m unable to shake.Subscribe: ‘ESPN’s Leaguewide’This week, I’ll start with the crowning of a new top team in the AFC, discuss why another top AFC team needs to ignore their quarterback and wonder where all the play-action went in the Rams’ offense.Jump to: Jaguars are the class of the AFC Bengals don’t need to pass more Rams need to rediscover play-action Johnson is Coach of the Year Stroud is finally back Eagles’ offense is unrecoverable Lions’ defense has no quick fix Four extra inklingsI think … the Jaguars are the class of the AFCHere are the current odds to represent the conference from DraftKings:The market has the Jaguars (3-1) in a weird spot right now.
It doesn’t like them enough to plant them atop the conference with the longstanding big three — that’s the Chiefs (4-0), Bills (3-1) and Ravens (3-1). But it thinks they’re clearly better than the second tier of AFC contenders — the Bengals (2-2), Patriots (2-2) and Broncos (2-2). It’s not entirely sure what to do with the Jaguars.I know what to do. Stick ’em in the top tier.If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times: Look at what the Jaguars have been since their Week 9 bye last season.
They’re 12-2 over 14 regular-season games, tied with the Seahawks for the best such record. Offensively, they are second in points per drive, and defensively they are third in points per drive.Fourteen games is a pretty big sample, but we can check for easy pitfalls just in case. The Jaguars are third in turnover margin over that time at plus-11 with only 14 giveaways in 14 games — that feels suspicious. But we have a better metric for turnover impact than margin, and its turnover EPA — it helps us put a weight on turnovers, as some interceptions (thrown in the red zone, for example) hurt more than others (thrown on third-and-long 40-plus yards downfield).
The Jaguars are 16th in turnover EPA per game over this stretch of games, bang on league average.What about strength of schedule? Have they been treading over cupcakes? That was a legitimate concern throughout the 2025 season. They played a stretch of bad offenses, including the Daniel Jones-less Colts twice, the Cam Ward Titans twice and the Brady Cook Jets.
To start 2026, the defense had faced Deshaun Watson’s Browns, the Bo Nix Broncos — a worryingly good game for Nix, if you’re a Jaguars believer — and a disastrous game from the Drake Maye Patriots.Then they played the Bengals and Joe Burrow on Sunday … a stiffer test.It was a solid team 22-17 win across the board. The Jaguars had a 34.5% pressure rate against Burrow. The pass rush, which I had lamented as a potential Achilles’ heel for a contender not two weeks ago, showed up in a huge way. Arik Armstead had more pressures in this one game (six) than the entire Jacksonville defensive tackle room had produced through the first two weeks of the season.
Burrow threw two picks on the day, and both were the result of pressure in the pocket.Defensively, the Jaguars accounted for the absence of outside corner Montaric Brown (hamstring) with a full menu of Travis Hunter coverage snaps. He played 71 defensive snaps, not sitting out a single play. He had seven targets in 48 coverage snaps and surrendered only four catches for 30 yards — most of them underneath completions in zone coverage. He had two pass breakups on the day and another interception wiped out by a roughing the passer penalty.pic.twitter.com/xFPkz2lAKp— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 6, 2026 On offense, the Jaguars had one of the most impressive rushing days of coach Liam Coen’s tenure.
The Jaguars averaged 4.7 yards per carry (seventh-best game) with 2.4 of those yards coming before contact (second-best game). Second-year man Bhayshul Tuten had two big runs called back for penalties, and the Jaguars suffered a few stuffs at the hands of the Bengals’ Dexter Lawrence II. But it was a balanced approach. Also, don’t forget about Cam Little’s big leg — he nailed two 50-plus-yard field goals.
The Jaguars are a complete team.If you feel as if you’ve noticed a theme in the summary of Jacksonville’s success against Cincinnati … the Jaguars were swimming upstream against their own miscues. Jacksonville ate 125 yards worth of penalties in this game, its worst single-game number in the past six seasons. This scoreboard could have and should have been more lopsided with better discipline across the board.In the Coen tenure, the Jaguars have risen well against AFC contenders. They split with Cincinnati over the past two seasons and split the series with Houston last season in a weird loss to Davis Mills.
They took Buffalo to the final bell in the postseason and beat Kansas City in the regular season at a final bell of their own.The only thing this team doesn’t have is a recent, deep postseason run — it hasn’t made the divisional round since 2022 — to give it a sense of tenure and legitimacy. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson were in the divisional round in 2024 and the conference championship in 2023. The Bills were in the divisional round last year and the conference championship in 2024. I don’t need to explain the Chiefs’ experience.
We’ve seen all of them there, so it’s easier to imagine seeing them again.We’ve also seen those quarterbacks win MVP trophies. Five of the past eight, to be exact.Continued doubt in the Jaguars is borne only by suspicion in Trevor Lawrence, who didn’t immediately reach his billing as the next generational quarterback when he was selected with the No. 1 pick in 2021. Because he was shaky to start his career (under Urban Meyer and on a dreadful roster, mind you), his blossoming now must be fraudulent, right?If Lawrence is less trustworthy than Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes as the difference-making passer on a top tier contending team because of his lack of MVP trophies and deep postseason experience, then there’s nothing I can say now to change your mind. You have to wait to see what awards he wins this season and how deep his team goes.But if I can convince you that sometimes, gifted quarterbacks don’t land with the right playcaller at first — that sometimes, Matthew Stafford has to sit and toil in Detroit for seasons before he can find his Sean McVay, and Matt Ryan must do the same — then perhaps we can reframe this moment for Lawrence.
I wrote it after Week 1 and still believe it after Week 4: The guy looks like an MVP. He doesn’t play like a middling quarterback propped up by an elite playcaller — nor does Coen coach him that way. Too much of this offense is built on his arm, his throws on the move, his pre-snap acumen. He is what we were promised.
Not insufficient, just delayed.Don’t buy the Jaguars yet if you don’t want to. I understand your hesitancy. Just don’t forget that you were offered a chance to buy in on the ground floor.I think … the Bengals need to ignore Joe Burrow about their
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