playRachel KryshakSep 24, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseRachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsEvery year, fantasy hockey managers look for players who could see a massive jump in production to get value in later rounds. They are also keenly in tune with “buyer beware” situations on players coming off stupendous seasons.Casual NHL fans want to understand reasonable expectations for developing young players, and drop-offs after great seasons.
I’ve identified a dozen players who fall into one of those two categories for 2026-27.To qualify for this list, a player cannot be a rookie. Many players projected to take a meaningful step forward are in their final years of their entry-level contracts or in the first year of their first standard contract. Many players projected to take a step back enjoyed career years in 2025-26, with elevated shooting percentages or roles they are unlikely to maintain.How to watch the 2026-27 NHL season on ESPN networks — including 100 exclusive games and the out-of-market package (over 1,050 games).Leap forward candidatesMatvei Michkov, RW, Philadelphia FlyersAge: 21 | Contract AAV: $950,000 2025-26 stats: 81 GP | 20 G | 31 AI’ve been on the Michkov train for a very long time, and after what seems to be a very impressive summer, Michkov seems primed for a true breakout.He is rightfully having to earn the trust of Rick Tocchet, but the Flyers absolutely need a more balanced offense to avoid a step back this season.Michkov’s talent is undeniable, and a summer in which he prepared his body for the grind of the NHL season should see him able to execute more effectively. At his best, Michkov can be a top-six difference-maker at even strength and a reliable power-play option.
His production will directly relate to the opportunity he earns — and is hopefully given.There is every reason to be excited and every reason for the Flyers to reward their young talent with greater opportunity. If Tocchet gives him offensive opportunities and chances to show his development, Michkov could crack the point-per-game threshold and establish himself as a go-to offensive producer.Matthew Wood, RW, Nashville PredatorsAge: 21 | Contract AAV: $950,000 2025-26 stats: 71 GP | 17 G | 13 AOne of the key players of Nashville’s rebuild enters his second season primed for a much bigger opportunity. Wood is expected to play regular top-six minutes with Filip Forsberg and get a long look on the top power-play unit.Given Wood’s physical makeup, he has the package to be a power forward with significant goal scoring potential. His net-front presence on the power play will be a nuisance to opposing goaltenders, and his ability to drive off the rush should pose problems for defenders.Centering Forsberg provides Wood a great opportunity to produce offense and cement himself as a top-six center.
Accounting for increased ice time, power-play opportunity and expected improvement of the team around him, Wood’s production could reasonably rise to 55 points, nearly double his rookie season (30 points). He’s not the only player who could break out in Nashville, but Wood seems to be the most reasonable bet to take a tangible leap in his offensive production given the opportunity.Gabe Perreault, RW, New York RangersAge: 21 | Contract AAV: $941,667 2025-26 stats: 49 GP | 12 G | 15 AFinding yourself on the top line to start the season is a recipe for a breakout. The Rangers seem poised to give their budding young star a real opportunity to become a bona fide offensive threat in his second NHL season.The tremendously talented winger will see a sharp increase in ice time at even strength and might play his way onto the top power-play unit at various points through the season. His goal-scoring ability should suit Mika Zibanejad’s playmaking ability, and the two of them should develop significant chemistry.The Rangers desperately need their young players to contribute meaningful offense to make the best of what is left in the careers of Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Igor Shesterkin and J.T.
Miller. Perreault is critical to that, and thus the opportunity presented to him is a recipe for breakout success. If Perreault plays top-line minutes and gets power-play time — he’s projected to score 23 goals and 60 points — it will be a major step forward in his development.Michael Misa, C, San Jose SharksAge: 19 | Contract AAV: $986,250 2025-26 stats: 45 GP | 9 G | 12 AMisa might see the biggest jump in his production this season. Given the trajectory of San Jose and his development, there is a real chance the young Shark triples his rookie production.
Misa enters his second season after putting on significant muscle, and training with fellow Sharks Macklin Celebrini and Sam Dickinson this summer.It is highly likely that Misa takes over Alexander Wennberg’s spot as the second-line center and becomes the primary weapon on the second power-play unit. In a 45-game rookie season, Misa tallied 21 points, nearly a half point per game.There is every reason to believe that Misa could produce 65-plus points in a full season in which his ice time should increase by 20%. Misa’s development should continue on defense as well, taking a major step to becoming a two-way play-driving center.With development on both ends of the ice and increased opportunity, Misa’s breakout season could be two-fold as he becomes one of the best young players to watch in the NHL.Luke Evangelista, RW, New Jersey DevilsAge: 24 | Contract AAV: $3 million 2025-26 stats: 81 GP | 121 G | 44 AOne of the shrewdest acquisitions of the summer was made by the Devils. Evangelista will get significant offensive opportunity in New Jersey’s top six, and given the left-handed offensive talent already on the roster, his right-handed shooting will bring some balance.He’s likely to get an extended opportunity on the top power-play unit because of Sheldon Keefe’s desire for a right-handed shooter to complement the unit.
Evangelista’s style is going to create space and offensive opportunities for his linemates, by winning puck battles and getting pucks to scorers in dangerous areas.He might take time to adjust to the offensive system in Jersey, meaning the points might not come right away. But he’s highly underrated as a two-way player that makes him the perfect fit beside Nico Hischier and certainly will be relied upon in key situations on both ends of the ice, providing value as he finds his offensive step. Evangelista’s step forward should not only see a step forward in production but some recognition as one of the league’s quality defensive wingers.Jimmy Snuggerud, RW, St. Louis BluesAge: 22 | Contract AAV: $950,000 2025-26 stats: 70 GP | 21 G | 30 ASnuggerud finds himself on the right wing of what has the potential to be one of the best lines in the NHL, this season.
Paired with Dylan Holloway and Robert Thomas, Snuggerud will be the beneficiary of Holloway’s speed and successful puck retrievals and battles, as well as Thomas’ playmaking ability. Snuggerud is a perfect fit to play with those two and it is more than conceivable that he capitalizes on the opportunity by scoring more than 30 goals.Snuggerud had a wonderful rookie season and given his trajectory and his quality of teammate, he’s going to be one of the go-to scoring threats for the Blues for the foreseeable future. With a step forward in development, Snuggerud should also help a power play that struggled last season, and easily top his five power-play goals in 2025-26.This combination of factors should see Snuggerud cement himself as a top-line offensive threat capable of producing 80-plus points.Honorable mentionNicholas Robertson, LW, Pittsburgh PenguinsAge: 25 | Contract AAV: $3.25 million 2025-26 stats: 78 GP
Leave a Reply