Cedric Mullins and the Rays probably will be the No. 1 seed in the AL, but will Tampa Bay’s lineup depth be an issue? Parker S. Freedman/Getty ImagesDavid SchoenfieldSep 18, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWith the 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs just around the corner, two quotes come to mind from Billy Beane, the former major league outfielder and current Athletics front office executive.”How can you not be romantic about baseball?” Beane’s character asks in the movie “Moneyball.” Maybe he had this year’s American League West race in mind.The real Billy Beane, in a despondent moment in 2002, told Michael Lewis, author of “Moneyball,” “My s— doesn’t work in the playoffs.”Beane’s Oakland teams never did reach a World Series, which was more about the high variance of short playoff series rather than his stuff not really working, but you can apply that quote to any of this year’s playoff contenders. They all have fatal flaws.(Of course, two of them will reach the World Series anyway … and that’s the romance part.)Let’s break down what each contender’s fatal flaw is and whether it will sink that team in October — or whether the team can overcome it to make a deep postseason run.Milwaukee BrewersFatal flaw: Lack of power (tied for 28th in the majors in home runs)The Brewers have clinched their fourth consecutive NL Central title and eighth playoff appearance in nine seasons with what has been the best team in franchise history. Last year’s squad set the franchise record with 97 wins, and this year’s team should reach 100 with a well-rounded roster built around likely Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski.How they got there is fascinating: Only the Cubs have scored more runs than Milwaukee, even though the Brewers might end up last in the majors in home runs.
Only 32.6% of Milwaukee’s runs have been scored via the long ball, easily the lowest percentage in the majors, where the overall average for 2026 is 40.6%. And here’s the thing to worry about: Over the past 10 postseasons (leaving out 2020), the percentage of runs scored via the home run has gone up each year compared to the regular season.This means hitting home runs is even more important in the postseason. Perfectly executed small ball can certainly play a role at times, but it’s more difficult to put together sustained rallies against better pitching without mixing in some power. Over the past 10 postseasons, again excluding 2020, the playoff team with the fewest home runs in the regular season has gone 17-29 and failed to reach a World Series.On the other hand, the team with the most home runs — it has been the Yankees five times — has reached only one World Series, with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers in 2024 (Los Angeles was third in home runs that season, just four behind New York).
Those teams have gone 31-41, so they’ve played 72 postseason games compared to 46 for the teams at the bottom in home runs.This doesn’t mean you should write off the Brewers. For one thing, they have been hitting and slugging much better since June compared to the first two months:April-May: .242/.328/.359, 0.71 home runs per game June-September: .269/.349/.430, 1.10 home runs per gameJackson Chourio sat out April, Jake Bauers has been terrific, and Joey Ortiz has been one of the best hitters in the majors since the All-Star break, so the current lineup is deeper than the one early in the season. The Brewers usually find ways to score — they’ve been held to one run or zero runs only 12 times all season, six fewer than any other team — and if Misiorowski and Logan Henderson and the bullpen are dealing, they only have to hit more home runs than their opponents.Los Angeles DodgersFatal flaw: Second-half offensive struggles (tied for 16th in runs since July 1)The Dodgers are accustomed to taking a loaded offense into the postseason: They were first in runs in 2020, fourth in 2021 (first in the pre-DH NL), first in 2022, second in 2023, second in 2024 and second in 2025. They still rank fourth in 2026, but the runs have been much harder to come by since early July.Injuries have played a part: Shohei Ohtani’s knee, Freddie Freeman’s knee, Andy Pages’ fractured left hand, and Will Smith sat out all of July and August.
But there is still some uncertainty with those injuries: Ohtani won’t return until five games are left in the regular season, Freeman is playing through his sore knee, and Pages has yet to return. The lineup is old — only Pages and Kyle Tucker are younger than 30 among the regulars — and might once again be counting on Miguel Rojas and Enrique Hernandez to come up big in the postseason. The Dodgers will need Ohtani to quickly find his groove — or maybe even rookie Josue De Paula plays a role somewhere.Minus Ohtani, who won’t pitch again this season, the rotation is still strong with the big three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell, with Tyler Glasnow probably slotting in as the fourth starter. Caveat: Snell left his start Wednesday after one inning because of groin tightness, so keep an eye on that situation.
The bullpen certainly has some issues with Edgardo Henriquez on the injured list and Edwin Diaz now looking as if he won’t even be on the postseason roster. Blake Treinen might need to get some key outs again.Bottom line: Even with Yamamoto and Skubal, this looks like the most flawed Dodgers team during this long run of postseason appearances.Atlanta BravesFatal flaw: Can they hit in the postseason? (.186 average from 2022 to 2024)After winning the World Series in 2021, the Braves had disappointing NLDS exits in 2022 and 2023, following 100-win regular seasons, and then a wild-card defeat in 2024 (before missing the playoffs last season). They went 2-8 in those three abbreviated postseason series, hitting just .186 while averaging 2.5 runs per game.The 2026 team includes essentially the same group of players that struggled in those postseasons, plus second-year catcher/DH Drake Baldwin. The Braves do some things well on offense, including hitting home runs: Matt Olson has 39, and Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies have each surpassed 20 home runs, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley closing in on 20.
That’s power up and down the lineup, even if Acuña and Riley have been much more dangerous players in the past.The one thing the Braves don’t do is draw many walks, as they rank 28th in walk rate and 29th in chase rate. They have several aggressive swingers in the likes of Harris, Albies, Mauricio Dubon and even Baldwin — hitters that good pitchers can exploit in the postseason.Chicago CubsFatal flaw: The ninth inning (Jacob Webb leads the club with nine saves)It doesn’t feel good heading into the postseason and wondering who is going to get the ball in the ninth inning. Webb is a journeyman right-hander with a below-average fastball pitching for his fourth team in four seasons. He became the closer in June but has now blown four consecutive save opportunities, losing three of those games.Maybe Chicago goes with Ryan Zeferjahn?
Acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline, he at least has a closer’s fastball (averaging 97 mph) and has picked up the past two saves this month for the Cubs, but he walks too many batters and has a 4.09 ERA on the season (5.65 with Chicago). Ryan Rolison? The lefty picked up a save earlier in September against the Brewers, but right-handed batters have an OPS over .900 against him. Daniel Palencia?
Last year’s closer hasn’t been trusted in high-leverage situations since returning from the IL.It’s a mess. The Dodgers managed to survive their closer issues last October, but they had starting pitching depth they could use in relief, which the Cubs don’t have. The Rangers had a bad bullpen in 2023 that got hot at the right time, so it’s possible. But Cubs manager Craig Counsell is going to go through a lo
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