playMike ClaySep 17, 2026, 08:51 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWelcome to The Playbook for Week 2, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Lions and Bills.This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here.
Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the analysis of each team’s strength of schedule as it stood before the season.All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters.
The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for games scheduled on days other than Sunday. (Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.) DET-BUF | CAR-ATL | NO-BAL | MIN-CHI | CIN-HOU | PIT-NE | GB-NYJ | CLE-TB PHI-TEN | JAX-DEN | LV-LAC| SEA-ARI| WAS-DAL | MIA-SF| IND-KC | NYG-LARDetroit Lions @ Buffalo BillsProjected score: Bills 29, Lions 27Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook III, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Moore, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPortaFantasy scoop: Dalton Kincaid exploded for 130 yards on six targets in Week 1 and, while the production is terrific, the most notable stats pertain to his usage.
Kincaid played on 77% of offensive snaps (his highest since Week 9 of 2024) and ran a route on 71% of the team’s passing plays (highest since Week 6 of 2024).We’ve seen big games from Kincaid before — he scored 14-plus points six times last season, after all — but the 2023 first-round pick has yet to emerge as a consistent fantasy option. Of course, if his Week 1 usage holds, he certainly can deliver TE1 fantasy numbers in Buffalo’s offense. He’s a fringe starting option against a Detroit defense that allowed a 7-87-2 receiving line to New Orleans tight ends last week.Over/under: 56.2 (highest) Win probability: Bills 56% (14th highest)Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta FalconsProjected score: Falcons 23, Panthers 22Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Tetairoa McMillanFantasy scoop: Jalen Coker exploded for eight catches, 138 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high nine targets against the Bears on Sunday. Coker was Carolina’s clear No. 2 target, as he and McMillan were the only Panthers to clear five targets.
Coker is now firmly on the fantasy radar, but boom/bust production is likely.Of the 22 career games in which he has played over 50% of Carolina’s snaps, Coker has reached 14.0 fantasy points eight times but has been held under 8.0 points 12 times. On the plus side, he has now produced 16-plus fantasy points in three straight games tracing back to last season. Consider Coker to be a fringe WR3 against Atlanta.Over/under: 44.5 (12th highest) Win probability: Falcons 54% (lowest)Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago BearsProjected score: Bears 27, Vikings 23Lineup locks: Caleb Williams, Aaron Jones Sr., D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Colston LovelandFantasy scoop: The Bears scored eight offensive touchdowns in Week 1, yet Burden (9.5 points), Odunze (7.2) and Loveland (0.0) were all fantasy disappointments. Do not fret!
Loveland (team-high 25 routes), Burden (second with 21) and Odunze (fourth with 18), who was limited early after being questionable to play, remained the core of the passing game — and that will translate to production in future weeks.Kalif Raymond was the star of the passing game (8-84-0 on nine targets) but does not make for a particularly appealing waiver add. The 32-year-old receiver is a career depth player who has yet to finish any season with more than 652 scrimmage yards — he’s been held under 300 in both of the last two seasons. Raymond will hit for the occasional big play here or there, but he’s too far down the totem pole in Chicago when everyone is healthy. Expect Raymond, who has 10 touchdowns in as many seasons, to disappear from the fantasy radar in short order.Over/under: 51 (4th highest) Win probability: Bears 64% (12th highest)Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee TitansProjected score: Eagles 25, Titans 16Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta SmithFantasy scoop: The Eagles’ new-look WR room was on display Sunday, and the usage was as follows: Smith (50 snaps, 25 routes, six targets), Dontayvion Wicks (48 snaps, 24 routes, four targets), Makai Lemon (35 snaps, 23 routes, four targets), Darius Cooper (eight snaps, one route, zero targets) and Hollywood Brown (zero snaps).Wicks hit for a long touchdown in the win, but with Hurts attempting only 25 passes, the unit’s overall production wasn’t very impressive (a combined 8-121-1 receiving line).
Smith remains a lineup lock as the clear No. 1 receiver, whereas Wicks and Lemon are playing enough that they’ll likely cancel each other out as potential flex options. Both should be on benches against the Titans.Over/under: 40.9 (14th highest) Win probability: Eagles 80% (5th highest)Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England PatriotsProjected score: Patriots 22, Steelers 18Lineup lock: Rhamondre StevensonFantasy scoop: A.J. Brown (high ankle sprain) was placed on IR, which opens the door for additional work for New England’s other receivers. In Week 1, DeMario Douglas paced the group in routes (29) and targets (seven), with Mack Hollins (19 routes, five targets), Romeo Doubs (25 routes, three targets) and Kyle Williams (seven routes, zero targets) also involved.
Doubs was held without a single catch in his Patriots debut, but his pricey offseason signing suggests he’ll replace Brown as Drake Maye’s top perimeter target. The ex-Packer is your best bet if you’re looking for a Week 2 flex option from this group.Over/under: 40.3 (15th highest) Win probability: Patriots 67% (10th highest)Green Bay Packers @ New York JetsProjected score: Packers 23, Jets 22Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Tucker KraftFantasy scoop: It was a two-headed committee in the Green Bay backfield in Week 1. Veteran Chris Brooks paced the backfield in snaps (37) but was held to seven carries for 29 yards and totaled just one target on nine routes. Much-hyped MarShawn Lloyd played on 30 snaps but turned 13 carries into only 37 yards (2.8 YPC).
He was a nonfactor in passing situations (six routes, one target). Granted, the Packers were dealing with a good Vikings defense, but Lloyd and Brooks combining for 6.6 fantasy p
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