Iowa State star Tamin Lipsey is hoping to return for a fifth season. If he does, Iowa State can continue its streak of being ranked in the AP Top 25 poll. Luke Lu/Diamond Images via Getty ImagesJeff BorzelloCloseJeff BorzelloESPN Staff Writer Basketball recruiting insider. Joined ESPN in 2014. Graduate of University of Delaware. and Myron MedcalfCloseMyron MedcalfESPN Staff Writer Covers college basketball Joined ESPN.com in 2011 Graduate of Minnesota State University, MankatoMultiple AuthorsSep 17, 2026, 09:15 AM ETOpen Extended ReactionsOver the past month, the plight of players who’d signed with NFL teams and participated in training camps was at the center of the fifth-year eligibility controversy.
Players in the 2022 high school class were excluded from the NCAA’s new rules that grant all collegiate athletes a fifth season, leading to legal chaos.But a football player, even one with NFL experience, can’t change a college football squad into a national title contender. That’s not the case in college basketball. Many hoops programs are awaiting key rulings on fifth-year players — as well as players with professional and international experience — to determine the trajectory of their seasons.Unfortunately for players hoping to play in college again, the NCAA is gaining steam in its fight to end all of the state and federal eligibility decisions. It has also renewed its push to keep players with professional experience out of college basketball, and complicated the path for international targets.
Where does that leave those programs?ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf rank 13 such teams that will be impacted by the eligibility uncertainty. They could become Top-25 squads with conference championship and second-weekend — dare we say Final Four? — ambitions if the players they covet are cleared to play. If they are not cleared, these teams could go into free fall and miss expectations.1. LSU TigersBest case: SEC title sleeper, Top-25 team Worst case: A limited roster that can’t compete in the SEC or beyondRJ Luis Jr., the 2025 Big East Player of the Year, signed multiple two-way contracts with NBA teams.
He’s going up against the SEC, which forced LSU to back down in its push to have players who’d been in NFL training camps to play another year, and the NCAA, which has vowed to fight all fifth-year rulings. If Luis does end up being able to play, Wade will have an SEC Player of the Year contender.The Tigers also have potential fifth-year talents in Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark, who helped UCLA reach the second weekend of the 2026 NCAA tournament. Marcio Santos, Saliou Niang, Michael Ruzic and Brice Dessert, meanwhile, are European prospects who can help Wade — but only if they, too, are cleared by the NCAA. Get ready for “Law & Order: LSU” in a boom or bust (second) debut for Wade this season. — Myron Medcalf2.
St. John’s Red StormBest case: Top 10 nationally, Big East title contender Worst case: Borderline Top-25 teamSt. John’s has eligibility issues in every category: Keyshawn Hall and Reed Bailey are five-for-five hopefuls; Babacar Sane is a former G-Leaguer; and Quinn Ellis is one of the most anticipated international arrivals in the country. Rick Pitino already lost Syracuse transfer Donnie Freeman for the season, so more absences would be very difficult for the Red Storm to replace.Adding Hall and Ellis to returnees Ian Jackson and Ruben Prey and Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou would give the Storm one of the best lineups in the country, and create matchup problems all over the floor.
Without the aforementioned quartet in eligibility limbo, the roster looks incredibly unproven, particularly since Pitino leaned heavily into the international market last offseason. There’s a gap between the Johnnies and preseason Big East favorite UConn if they aren’t eligible. — Jeff Borzello3. Texas Tech Red RaidersBest case: Big 12 championship, Final Four contender Worst case: Borderline Top-25 team once healthyIn February, the program lost two-time AP All-American JT Toppin to a torn ACL. Toppin is expected to return to the court this season, though it’s unclear exactly when the 6-foot-9 forward will be available.
That means this team’s fleet of fifth-year players are even more vital, even though transfers Cruz Davis (Hofstra) and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (UNLV) both averaged over 20 PPG last season. Fifth-year standout Darrion Williams, the hero who led Texas Tech to the Elite Eight in 2025, wants to return to Lubbock after a year at NC State. Donovan Atwell is also attempting to return for a fifth year after connecting on 46% of his 3-point attempts for the Raiders last season. Jamichael Stillwell had nine double-doubles at UCF and would help Grant McCasland weather the storm until Toppin is ready.
All three continue to await legal clearance, however. — Medcalf4. Gonzaga BulldogsBest case: Final Four contender Worst case: Top-20 teamGonzaga should have its best team — on paper, at least — since the 2021-22 season, if all of its five-for-five hopefuls are cleared to play. Mark Few should have one of the elite frontcourt duos in the country regardless, with Braden Huff returning to pair with Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop. Davis Fogle is poised for a breakout season on the wing.
But Mario Saint Supery’s July decision to sign a pro contract in Spain left Mark Few without a point guard — and the Zags quickly pivoted to the five-for-five market. They have three players currently in limbo: point guards Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett, and wing Chauncey Wiggins. With all three, Few would have plenty of options and versatility on the perimeter to go with his duo up front. Gonzaga’s going to win a lot of games either way, but a full roster puts it in position for a deep March run. — Borzello5.
Missouri TigersBest case: SEC title sleeper, second-weekend team Worst case: NCAA tournament teamMark Mitchell’s shift from Kentucky back to Missouri might have also shifted the standings in the SEC. Although he did not sign an Exhibit 10 contract with an NBA team after going undrafted, he’s still a potential casualty of the NCAA’s push to deny the fifth-year eligibility of players from the class of 2022 in America. Mitchell (18.3 PPG, 39% from beyond the arc) turns Missouri into a second-weekend team and maybe more.He also expands the depth of Dennis Gates’ roster, which includes five-star prospect Toni Bryant, Tennessee transfer Jaylen Carey — and, possibly, fellow fifth-year hopeful CJ Gunn (13.1 PPG at DePaul). If five-star point guard Jason Crowe lives up to his ceiling as a projected lottery pick, the Tigers will have a roster that could stamp the program’s first trip to the Elite Eight since 2009. — Medcalf6.
Iowa State CyclonesBest case: Second-weekend expectations Worst case: Outside the Top 25The Cyclones are a late addition to these rankings, after former star point guard Tamin Lipsey joined a lawsuit in Indiana seeking a fifth year of eligibility. Lipsey was one of the best point guards in the country during his time in Ames, starting 137 games, going to four NCAA tournaments and earning All-Big 12 honors three times. In his last three seasons, Iowa State won 83 games and advanced to the Sweet 16 twice. If he’s back, TJ Otzelberger’s team is a lock to be comfortably inside the preseason Top 25.As things currently stand — particularly after Killyan Toure’s injury — the Cyclones could start the season outside the Top 25.
It’s a testament to Iowa State’s consistent success with Lipsey (and under Otzelberger in general), that this would be the first time the Cyclones were unranked since Jan. 8, 2024 — 52 AP polls ago. — Borzello7. Oklahoma SoonersBest case: Knocking on the door of the Top 25 Worst case: Bubble teamOklahoma has already received some negative eligibility news this offseason, with the NCAA denying a waiver for former overseas pro and G-Leaguer Akoldah Gak. It wasn’t really unexpected, but Porter Moser will hope to have b
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