playESPNMultiple AuthorsSep 10, 2026, 07:00 AM ETOpen Extended ReactionsA third of the way through September, the 2026 playoff picture is taking shape.No team has secured a postseason berth yet, or even clinched a division, although a number of contenders have more than a 99% chance of making the playoffs. But a couple of clubs that seemed all but out of October are making a push in the final month.The Blue Jays, after taking the Dodgers all the way to Game 7 of last year’s World Series, are just a game back of the final American League wild-card spot — and three spots up on our list — after looking like they wouldn’t be returning to October for most of the season. Meanwhile, the Guardians are staying close to the White Sox in the AL Central, and the Rangers remain only two games behind the Astros in the AL West.The National League appears to be a bit more set, with the closest division being the NL East with the Braves three games up on the Phillies after the pair split a four-game series over the weekend. The final wild-card berth is seemingly the one playoff spot still left up for grabs, with the Diamondbacks and Padres going back and forth for it.Our expert panel has ranked every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season.
We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.Week 23 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings1. Milwaukee BrewersRecord: 91-56 Previous ranking: 1Jacob Misiorowski took back the Cy Young conversation after striking out nine over 6⅓ innings in his latest start Tuesday. His ERA dropped to 1.95 after giving up a first-inning run to the Cubs. He remains the only NL pitcher with an ERA under 2.00.
Braves lefty Chris Sale is putting up a late challenge, but between Miz’s lower ERA, innings lead and strikeout totals, it’s still his to lose. Misiorowski passed 1,000 pitches of 100 mph or more on the season — an enormous and unheard-of total. — Rogers2. Los Angeles DodgersRecord: 89-57 Previous ranking: 2Shohei Ohtani acknowledged Monday that he’s “most likely” not going to pitch again this season, adding that he is “focusing on hitting moving forward.” He’s clearly not healthy. He’s dealing with pain in his left knee and right biceps, and though those ailments have mostly affected him on the mound, he acknowledged that he’s going to have to work through them offensively, too.
The Dodgers’ hope is that going on the injured list, taking a few days to reset and coming back on Sept. 23 will put him in better form heading into the playoffs. Ohtani has just seven hits and 22 strikeouts over his last 54 at-bats — but the Dodgers are on a seven-game winning streak nonetheless. — Gonzalez3. Tampa Bay RaysRecord: 87-58 Previous ranking: 4A key to the Rays’ season has been their success in one-run and extra-inning games: 21-14 in one-run games and 8-6 in extra-inning games. Saturday’s 6-3 win over the Rangers in 10 innings came courtesy of Jonathan Aranda’s three-run homer — after Yandy Diaz had been intentionally walked.
Aranda has slumped in the second half, but three straight two-hit games in September might get him going again alongside Diaz and Junior Caminero as the big three continue to carry the Tampa Bay lineup. — Schoenfield4. Atlanta BravesRecord: 85-61 Previous ranking: 3The Braves and Phillies split their crucial four-game series, as the boos that Phillies fans directed at Ronald Acuña Jr. throughout the series turned into the biggest news. Acuña hit a tying home run in the eighth inning Sunday as the Braves rallied for a 5-4 victory — and took his time admiring the home run, which came off a 100.5 mph fastball from Alex McFarlane. Acuña then gave himself a curtain call when he stepped out of the dugout and waved at the fans.
“I love the fans from Philly because they boo me,” Acuña said. “So, that’s motivation.” — Schoenfield5. New York YankeesRecord: 83-62 Previous ranking: 6Aaron Judge returned Tuesday after missing 100 days due to a right rib stress fracture, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and playing six innings in right field before Heliot Ramos replaced him. Manager Aaron Boone slotted Judge in the No. 3 spot in the lineup between lefties Cody Bellinger and Luis Garcia Jr.
In Tuesday’s 5-3 win over the Rockies, Cam Schlittler allowed one run in seven innings while striking out 10, keeping up his Cy Young pace. He has allowed one run or no runs in 20 starts, most in the majors in 2026 — and already the most in one season in Yankees franchise history. — Schoenfield6. Philadelphia PhilliesRecord: 82-64 Previous ranking: 7The Phillies were unable to make up ground on the Braves, splitting their four-game series. Jesus Luzardo salvaged the split with a brilliant 1-0 shutout on Monday, allowing just two hits with one walk and 12 strikeouts.
Luzardo’s game score of 94 was tied for the second highest in the majors this season (behind Misiorowski’s 100 against the Phillies) and was the highest by a Phillies starter since Vince Velasquez spun a 97 in 2016 when he fanned 16. Luzardo is 8-1 with a 1.66 ERA since the beginning of July, and the Phillies have won his past seven starts. — Schoenfield7. Chicago CubsRecord: 81-66 Previous ranking: 5If the Cubs have an Achilles’ heel going into the postseason, it’s their bullpen. It resulted in several late-inning losses in the second half, including Monday’s and Tuesday’s defeats to the Brewers.
Manager Craig Counsell doesn’t have that guy he can lean on to get righties and lefties out at any time in the game. It means mixing and matching the other team’s lineup, which isn’t easy with the three-batter minimum rule. Chicago’s bullpen has been OK at times through injuries but needs to be great for the Cubs to win a World Series. It remains to be seen if it can get there. — Rogers8.
Boston Red SoxRecord: 80-67 Previous ranking: 8Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray pitched back-to-back gems as the Red Sox tossed consecutive shutouts against the Orioles as part of a four-game Labor Day sweep. Suarez allowed five hits in seven scoreless frames — his eighth scoreless start of 2026. Gray followed with three hits in his seven scoreless innings to run his record to 17-4 with a 2.69 ERA, which means he’s headed for another high Cy Young finish. Gray finished third way back in 2015 with the A’s and then second with the Twins in 2023. — Schoenfield9.
San Diego PadresRecord: 78-68 Previous ranking: 9Nick Pivetta returned from a nearly four-month hiatus on Monday and fired five scoreless innings against the Nationals, providing a major boost to the Padres’ consistently needy rotation. But his rehabbing teammate, Joe Musgrove, had another setback in his return from Tommy John surgery, which he had in October 2024. Musgrove had initially hoped to be back in the Padres’ rotation by Opening Day of this season. Now, it’s clear he won’t be a traditional starter in time for the playoffs.
The Padres are experimenting with the possibility of short starts or a bullpen role, but it’s not ideal. As Musgrove told reporters recently: “I’m running out of answers.” — Gonzalez10. Arizona DiamondbacksRecord: 78-69 Previous ranking: 11Corbin Burnes made his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery and pitched three scoreless innings against the Royals on Tuesday. Not a prolonged start, of course, but the important thing is that he’s back for the stretch run, and he’ll keep building from there.
The following day, Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka returned, as well, pitching in tandem and combining for five runs allowed (four earned) in 7⅓ innings. The D-backs have won four of their last five, keeping pace with the Padres — who they’ll face in the final series of the regular season — for the final wild-card spot in the NL. Arizona’s reinforcements are right on time. — Gonzalez11. Chicago White SoxRecord: 75-70 Previous ra
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