When — and where — will Tarik Skubal sign? Here’s what we’re hearing about the MLB offseason’s hottest topics. CHRIS TORRES/EPA/ShutterstockESPNMultiple AuthorsNov 2, 2026, 07:00 AM ETOpen Extended ReactionsThe MLB hot stove season has arrived!With players becoming free to sign with any team they choose today (free agency officially begins Monday at 5 p.m. ET), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the 2026 MLB postseason.What is the early word on top free agent Tarik Skubal? Would the Tampa Bay Rays trade ace Drew Rasmussen on the heels of their World Series run?
What will the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs do after their playoff exits? And which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry?Here is what we’re hearing as the hot stove ignites.What are you hearing about Tarik Skubal as his free agency begins?Jeff Passan: Skubal is far and away the best player in this class, and the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout. The two most obvious suitors are the two teams with the highest payrolls in baseball: The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. There are bound to be others.
The Chicago Cubs badly want Skubal. They also are skeptical that they will be willing to compete at the sort of dollars Skubal is expected to get — well in excess of $300 million, potentially in the $400 million-plus range. With Michael King and Nick Pivetta being free agents, the San Diego Padres need a rotation anchor, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball would more than suffice.Others will join the foray, at the very least showing interest and perhaps joining the bidding. Either way, coming off another excellent season, Skubal will set a new record for a starting pitcher contract.
The only question is how big it will be.Alden Gonzalez: All things being equal — and by “all things” I, of course, mean “money” — my sense is Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers. He truly seemed to relish his 2½ months in Los Angeles. He loved the culture, particularly being among so many established, veteran players who were singularly focused on winning. He became besties with Blake Snell, was awed by the organization’s resources and, overall, seemed to fit in seamlessly.
But it’s going to come down to price. And whether the Dodgers would be willing to match Steve Cohen’s Mets or any other suitors that materialize given the threat of a salary cap remains to be seen.Which other free agents are generating the most early buzz?Buster Olney: Skubal is a market of one — I’ve had a couple of folks estimate he’ll get something north of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in a six- or seven-year deal, with the usual suspects bidding against each other — but behind him is a range of good veteran starting pitchers who will come off the board before the lockout.Michael King, Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez and Tyler Mahle are among the starters who probably will have offers to accept, if they choose to wrap up their negotiations in November, because they’re all in line to have good short-term compensation that teams can absorb no matter what financial system is in place next year. The playoffs and World Series served as a one month-long advertisement for Martinez, because not only did he pitch well and take the ball on short rest, but so much was said about how his clubhouse presence was difference-making for the Rays.Seiya Suzuki might have the most leverage of the position players to sign, given that he’s a right-handed power bat in a market starved for players like him.Jesse Rogers: There were a slew of starters who were moved at the deadline in need of new homes now that they’re free agents. Rays star Freddy Peralta likely improved his position in the market more than anyone considering his performance in Tampa.
The same could be said of Padres righty Michael King who pitched his best in the postseason as well.Neither of those players can receive a qualifying offer, making them even more attractive to teams, and they headline a group of starters who should sign before a December lockout.Who are the biggest trade candidates this offseason?Olney: The trade market really won’t gain clarity until after the next CBA is settled, except in a few isolated cases; I’ve heard Seattle is poking around to assess how its surplus in pitching might be used to add a bat. But generally, teams are going to be very wary of making trades without being able to attach appropriate value to the players proposed in deals — and no one will be able to do that with confidence until they know what the financial system looks like.Passan: At the top of the list is Tampa Bay ace Drew Rasmussen, whose $20 million salary would push the Rays’ payroll above their 2026 level without making another move. Will their World Series run encourage ownership to push the payroll and keep Rasmussen around for another run, or is the ability to clean up in a trade too strong to turn down?The Astros, under new GM Randy Flores, have to decide what to do with shortstop Jeremy Pena a year before he reaches free agency. Multiple candidates for the GM job had suggested a rebuild would be the best course of action.
The Los Angeles Angels, after trading Jose Soriano at the deadline, still have left-hander Reid Detmers and shortstop Zach Neto — and the new head of baseball operations there has a mess to clean up. Arizona could move Ketel Marte — if he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause. And while William Contreras isn’t going anywhere even though he is nearing free agency, the World Series champion Brewers will at least listen on closer Trevor Megill.What are you hearing the pending lockout could mean for the pace of offseason moves?Jorge Castillo: The expectation is it’s going to be 2021 all over again. Five years ago, the last few days of November were a frenzy as teams committed $1.9 billion to free agents before the previous collective bargaining agreement expired.
Nine players signed nine-figure contracts, led by Corey Seager’s 10-year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers.While Tarik Skubal, the top free agent this winter, is expected to sign a deal north of that before the lockout, this free agent class isn’t nearly as deep. Players are going to fly off the board anyway.Gonzalez: Ditto on the amount of action, and, to emphasize: the perception among executives is that this is generally a very weak crop of free agents. Outside of Teruaki Sato, a 27-year-old Japanese third baseman who’s expected to be posted in the coming days and could one day be a Triple Crown threat, it’s slim pickings on offense.Aside from Skubal, the best starting pitcher available might be Kaima Taira, a 5-foot-8 right-hander with a vast repertoire. The markets for Sato, Taira and fellow Japanese star Hiromi Itoh will dominate a lot of the conversation over these next few weeks.
But there will be a lot of action around them.Has a Rays-Brewers World Series impacted how teams are approaching the offseason?Passan: Not really. The Rays and Brewers have been regarded as excellent organizations for the last decade. Getting to the World Series is validation, yes, but their approaches are well-known and have been for years. Teams with more resources aren’t suddenly going to give away the advantage that accompanies higher payrolls simply because the Rays, Brewers and Cleveland Guardians found success with lower ones.
If the demand for players who put the ball in play or are elite baserunners rise precipitously, sure, we’ll entertain the idea that there’s some sort of an effect. But we’ll take the under.Rogers: It’s too early to tell, but there is some chatter about the way those teams put the ball in play having a ripple effect in the sport. If anything, they serve as a reminder that there is more than one way to win a game and the more diverse options you have at the plate or on the mound, the better. Winning without jus
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