playHeather DinichNov 3, 2026, 07:00 AM ETMultiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsGo ahead, pick a team, any team — it has a hole in it.Undefeated Miami? It’s giving up 252 passing yards per game — No. 122 in the nation.Undefeated Utah? Its schedule ranks No. 83 right now.Undefeated UCLA? The Bruins are No. 45 nationally in offensive efficiency — against the No. 77-ranked schedule.The College Football Playoff selection committee has some work to do before its first of six rankings is announced Tuesday at 7 p.m.
ET on ESPN. Three remaining undefeated teams is the fewest entering November since 2014, the first year of the CFP. Even the traditional heavyweights are limping into the month with a flat tire, as Ohio State has multiple losses before November for the first time since 2011. Week 10 will provide much greater clarity, but we’re not there yet — and the selection committee isn’t supposed to look ahead.
Which means this might be its most difficult ranking of the season, as three major questions loom:Will it honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, even though the Cougars have a bad loss to UCF and were underwhelming in their win against Arizona State?Is Ohio State still a national title contender without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin in the lineup?How does the committee sort through the two-loss SEC teams, and who’s the best?Tuesday’s answers to those questions will shed some light on how much this group values schedule strength and head-to-head wins. There are multiple examples of both littered throughout the top half of teams under consideration.It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with “would be in” status below are in this week’s bracket based on the latest projection.
It will be updated Tuesday night using the selection committee’s first top 25. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed “last team in” and “first team out.” These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled “still in the mix” haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is “out” will have to wait until next season.The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from most to least, based on the Week 9 projection.Jump to a conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten SEC | Independent | Group of 6 BracketSECWould be in: Georgia, Kentucky, Ole Miss, TexasLast team in: Ole Miss.
The Rebels have the second-best chance in the SEC to reach the playoff (61.5%) behind Georgia (80.8%), but those teams play each other Saturday. Ole Miss has a precarious position because of a lopsided loss to Florida, though the committee will at least talk about the fact that it happened on the road following an emotional home win against LSU and the Rebels’ former coach, Lane Kiffin. Some committee members will also question Ole Miss’ defense, which is No. 25 in total efficiency, but the group will generally reward the Rebels for wins against ranked opponents LSU and Missouri.First team out: LSU. The Tigers were projected in the No. 12 spot heading into Tuesday’s ranking, partly because they have outscored back-to-back SEC opponents Mississippi State and Auburn by a combined margin of 69-17.
They seem to be putting it all together at the right time, ranking No. 5 in total efficiency. The season-opening win against Clemson will be respected in the committee room, but LSU is still lacking a statement win, which is why the committee might like Alabama more. The Tide have a 16-point loss at Tennessee, but beat Kentucky — which LSU did not. Alabama and LSU were on a bye heading into the first ranking and play each other Saturday.
ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 57% chance to win.Still in the mix: Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee. The Vols have a double-digit win against the Tide, but Tennessee and Missouri each have less than an 8% chance to reach the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Alabama, though, has the third-best chance (29.2%) behind Georgia and Kentucky. Tennessee and Missouri also have less than a 10% chance each to win out, while the Tide has the best chance of the three (36%) to avoid a third loss.Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M, VanderbiltBig TenWould be in: Indiana, UCLA, Ohio StateLast team in: Ohio State.
The wins at Indiana and at Iowa kept the Buckeyes in the top 12, but at No. 10, they’re in an uncertain position. The committee got its first look at Ohio State with freshman starting quarterback Luke Fahey in the lineup against USC, and he played a respectable game with no interceptions, but the offense couldn’t keep up with the Trojans. Ohio State was held without a touchdown on its first nine drives, but its defense might have been more concerning. The Buckeyes gave up a season-high 30 points, and 11 penalties and a fumble will also raise some eyebrows in the committee meeting room.
But unlike other contenders, Ohio State has played the No. 18-ranked schedule, is No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and is ranked No. 6 in overall efficiency. The committee will consider that both losses came on the road, and that the Week 2 loss to Texas was by one point.First team out: USC. Is it too little, too late, for the Trojans? Nope.
USC still has an 8.7% chance to reach the Big Ten championship game, and has road games at Indiana and UCLA. Those results either boost USC into the top 12, or knock the Trojans out for good. ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 21% chance to win in Bloomington and a 52.9% chance to win at crosstown rival UCLA. USC fans should be rooting for Ohio State to rebound and stay relevant because it will keep the Week 9 win valuable to the committee.Still in the mix: Oregon, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin.
They’re listed here only because they can still reach the Big Ten title game, albeit with at least a 1.5% chance.Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Oregon, Purdue, Rutgers, WashingtonBig 12Would be in: BYU, UtahLast team in: Utah. The Utes might have a case to be ranked higher than both BYU and Notre Dame because some committee members might value their undefeated record and win against Houston. BYU has the win over Notre Dame, but a bad loss at UCF. And Notre Dame’s best wins are against Wisconsin and North Carolina.
But Utah has schedule concerns, as theirs is ranked No. 83 to this point, according to ESPN Analytics. Utah is also ranked outside of the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiencies. Saturday’s game against BYU will settle who should be ranked higher, but BYU will be in trouble if it loses. There is already skepticism in the room about how high BYU should be ranked with an eight-point loss at UCF that looked even worse Friday night after Baylor hammered the Knights 41-9 in Orlando, Florida.First team out: Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have the second-best chance (45.2%) to reach the Big 12 title game after Saturday’s important win against Arizona — just a bit ahead of BYU (39.3%). That’s because Texas Tech has at least a 60% chance to win each of its remaining games, but back-to-back trips to Oklahoma State and Baylor won’t be easy. The Red Raiders missed the top-12 projection again this week because they rank No. 27 in overall efficiency against the No. 68 schedule to this point, and are No. 52 in offensive efficiency. The 13-point loss at Cincinnati was also damaging.
Benching quarterback Will Hammond for Thomas Castellanos could be the spark they need to earn some style points down the stretch.Still in the mix: Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State. All three of these teams still have at least a 10% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, and any Power 4 team that can win its conference can reach the CFP.Out: Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, UCF,
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