playBill ConnellyNov 1, 2026, 05:35 PM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsThe first two months of the college football season were messy and increasingly chaotic. Week 9 was no exception, though a lot of its surprises were either (A) games that were projected to be close but were blowouts instead or (B) close calls for top teams.No. 1 Miami (tight win over North Carolina), No. 4 Indiana (overtime win over Minnesota) and No. 8 BYU (tight win over Arizona State) all fit the latter category.
Other than USC knocking off a wounded Ohio State, the underdogs couldn’t quite get it done against the top teams this time around.But forget all that — it’s November now. Virtually everything we eventually remember about the 2026 season will happen from this point forward. And with the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season coming out Tuesday, let’s spin this forward a bit with help from some playoff tiers.Playoff tiersUsing a combination of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and odds driven by my SP+ rankings, we can pretty easily bunch teams into groups of playoff likelihood. (I like creating an average of the two sources because it smooths out some of the rough edges in both models.)Tier 1Miami (8-0, 98.3% average playoff odds)It only briefly felt like Miami was in true danger against North Carolina on Saturday night: The Tar Heels took the lead early in the fourth quarter before Miami responded with a nine-play TD drive, recovered a fumble and scored again. The response to adversity was strong, just as it was a couple of weeks ago against Florida State.The Hurricanes have underachieved defensively for three straight weeks, however, allowing 31 points per game and forcing their amazing offense to be amazing at all times.
Defense is why they’re projected underdogs at Notre Dame this coming weekend, but while it might be a fatal flaw as far as winning the national title goes, it hasn’t prevented them from all but locking up a CFP spot. They would have to lose to Notre Dame and then potentially lose two of their last three after that to miss out. All three of those games are at home, and the Canes are currently projected favorites of at least 17 points in each. They’re likely still in with a 10-2 record, and SP+ gives them only a 1% chance of finishing the regular season 9-3 or worse.Tier 2Indiana (8-1, 89.2%) Notre Dame (7-1, 86.4%) Utah (8-0, 85.6%) Georgia (7-1, 84.7%)Based on these odds, about 3.5 of these four teams will make the CFP.
They’re all in pretty good shape but still have to finish the job.For Indiana, that means figuring out a sudden QB crisis. Josh Hoover has completed just 16 of 37 passes in his past two games while battling arm issues, and he hasn’t completed more than 55% of his passes in a game since Oct. 3. He evidently picked up another knock in the first half of the Hoosiers’ overtime win over Minnesota, and backup Grant Wilson had to come in to save the day. He wasn’t amazing (9-for-17 for 156 yards and a touchdown), but he was a massive improvement over Hoover.Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan now have a much-needed bye week to either get Hoover healthy and back on track or officially switch to Wilson.
They barely escaped Week 9 with an 8-1 record, and while they’re projected double-digit favorites in each of their three remaining games, they were nearly three-touchdown favorites against Minnesota, too.For Notre Dame, that means better starts. In the Fighting Irish’s loss at BYU, they trailed 21-10 at halftime; on Saturday against Navy, they got sliced up by the Midshipmen’s offense in the first half and trailed 13-7 after 29 minutes before finally finding the accelerator. A slow start against Miami could be devastating with the way the Hurricanes can pile on points, and it could leave them vulnerable to upsets against SMU and Syracuse. They should still get into the CFP at 10-2 but almost certainly not at 9-3.For Utah, that means going 1-1 over the next two games.
Granted, the Utes might still get in at 10-2, but if they can beat either BYU at home or Arizona in Tucson, they’ll have both a quality win and a very good shot at finishing the regular season 11-1. The Utes were unreal in the first half against Cincinnati on Saturday, scoring touchdowns on all four offensive drives and scoring a pair of defensive touchdowns as well (a Rabbit Evans fumble return and an Elijah Davis pick-six). Against the team that had just beaten Texas Tech, they led 42-6 at halftime. (The Utes fell asleep a bit in the second half, but that’s forgivable.) Anytime they’re that aggressive and effective, they’ll win.For Georgia, that means keeping the turnovers in check. After two more against Florida, the Bulldogs have fumbled eight times in their past three games and 15 times for the season, and while it’s basically their only weakness, it contributed to their loss to Auburn and could obviously bite them again in upcoming games at Ole Miss and South Carolina and at home against Missouri.
If the Dawgs go 2-1 in that stretch, their playoff spot is nearly set. So stop dropping the damn ball.Tier 3UCLA (8-0, 71.2%) Ohio State (6-2, 68.6%) Wake Forest (7-1, 65.4%)On average, about 2.1 of these three teams make it. That means, of course, that about one won’t. And as strange as this sounds, the blue blood is probably the most vulnerable.
In Ohio State’s first game after losing quarterback Julian Sayin to injury, the Buckeyes ran the ball pretty well against USC and got a decent performance from freshman Luke Fahey. But they kept settling for field goals, and their defense allowed 6.8 yards per play and three touchdowns to a Trojans offense that got humbled by Wisconsin last week.USC was the first of five straight SP+ top-30 opponents the Buckeyes will face to end the regular season, likely all without Sayin, and when the defense needed to step up a bit to help out the offense, it couldn’t do it. That’s pretty foreboding.The other two teams in this tier continued to look the part Saturday. UCLA handled Nevada with ease, pitching a 27-0 shutout and moving up to fourth nationally in fewest points allowed per drive. (Yes, the Bruins were playing Nevada, but hey, at 93rd in SP+ the Wolf Pack aren’t that far behind three of UCLA’s recent Big Ten opponents — Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State.) They’re projected favorites in each of four remaining regular-season games, and while games against Michigan and USC are relative tossups, the Bruins also still have a mulligan.
SP+ says their most likely regular-season record is 11-1, which would obviously get them in.Wake Forest, meanwhile, has simply looked like one of the best teams in the country in recent weeks. The Demon Deacons have beaten SP+ projections for seven straight weeks and have beaten their past four opponents by an average of 47-8. Each of those four opponents are currently among the bottom seven in the ACC, but … 47-8! Gio Lopez and the Deacs’ offense are up to second nationally in points per drive, combining extreme efficiency with only three turnovers.They still have to face SMU (away) and Duke (home) and therefore have only a 32% chance of ending the regular season 11-1.
But they would still have a chance of getting in at 10-2, and they could also get in by winning the ACC no matter their record.Tier 4Texas Tech (7-1, 57.1%) BYU (7-1, 51.4%) Alabama (6-2, 46.6%) Texas (6-2, 45.5%) LSU (6-2, 44.5%) Ole Miss (6-2, 42.6%) Kentucky (7-1, 35.5%)Now things get really interesting. This seven-team tier will likely produce about three bids based on the teams’ average odds — all these teams are virtually guaranteed bids if they win out, but most won’t. In fact, per SP+ none have a greater than 31% chance of doing so.Kentucky likely has an extra mulligan thanks to its 7-1 record and strong schedule strength, but SP+ has not been in love with the Wildcats — they’r
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