playMatt BowenCloseMatt BowenESPN WriterMatt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on “NFL Matchup.” After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons., Pamela MaldonadoClosePamela MaldonadoSports Betting AnalystPamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN., Eric MoodyCloseEric MoodyESPN WriterEric Moody is a writer for fantasy football, men’s and women’s basketball, and sports betting at ESPN. Eric joined ESPN in 2021 after working as a senior fantasy analyst at Pro Football Network.
Prior to that, he spent much of his career as a manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company., Ben SolakCloseBen SolakESPNBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network., Seth WalderCloseSeth WalderESPN AnalyticsSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017.
He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple AuthorsOct 17, 2026, 06:40 AM ETOpen Extended ReactionsWeek 6 of the 2026 NFL season is underway after the Broncos beat the Seahawks in overtime Thursday night. But what will happen in the remaining 13 games? We have 15 predictions from our NFL experts.First, betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks three underdogs who could win outright.
Then, analytics writer Seth Walder projects stat lines for three players. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody suggests three sleepers, and analyst Matt Bowen predicts three players who will find the end zone. Finally, analyst Ben Solak lays out three wild-card predictions.Could the Texans pull off an upset in London? How many sacks will Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones have against the Chargers?
Could Rams tight end Tyler Higbee be a sneaky play in fantasy? Will Falcons wide receiver Drake London find the end zone for the first time this season? And will Aaron Rodgers move up in the NFL record books against the Bucs? Let’s make 15 big predictions for the Sunday and Monday action.Jump to: Upset picks | Projected stat lines Fantasy sleepers, surprises TD scorers | Other predictionsMaldonado predicts three upsetsDallas Cowboys +1.5 (+102) at Green Bay PackersThe Packers have allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per attempt this season, but this matchup presents a much tougher test than the backup quarterbacks they’ve faced in the past two weeks.
The Cowboys convert nearly half their third downs and lead the league in the percentage of possessions producing points. Green Bay can hit big plays, but the Cowboys have enough on offense with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to answer.New York Giants +1.5 (108 moneyline) vs. New Orleans SaintsThe Giants have a way to make this Sunday easier for quarterback Jameis Winston. They can run against a struggling Saints defense, then move tight end Isaiah Likely out wide for easy throws over smaller defenders.On the other side, Saints QB Tyler Shough has struggled even when he has time to throw.
So New York doesn’t need to constantly pressure him to get stops. That gives the Giants enough to keep this close and win at home.Houston Texans +3 (+120 moneyline) vs. Jacksonville JaguarsJacksonville’s defense is allowing just 14 points per game, but opponents are still finding room to throw. The Jaguars allow 7.7 yards per attempt and 93.2 yards per game to No. 1 receivers, giving QB C.J.
Stroud and WR Nico Collins a matchup to attack in London on Sunday.Houston can also pressure Trevor Lawrence without blitzing or disguising its coverage, making it harder for the quarterback to read the defense. That gives the Texans a way to get stops while leaving more players in coverage.Walder predicts three stat linesSauce Gardner, CB, Indianapolis Colts: 28 coverage snaps, 3 targets, 0 receptions allowedGardner has had a rough season, allowing 1.3 yards per coverage snap and 10.3 EPA when targeted. But I think most of that has been due to on-ball results, rather than Gardner putting himself in poor position throughout the route.Gardner has allowed a plus-19% completion percentage over expected, while spending 24% of the time in tight coverage (fourth most among outside CBs with at least 100 coverage snaps). And my own player tracking analysis indicates Gardner has been in good position before the ball is thrown.
All of this is to say that his start to the season might be a blip, and a game against the Titans is just what he needs to turn the results around.Chris Jones, DT, Kansas City Chiefs: 1.5 sacks, 5 pressures, 26% pass rush win rateJones has the privilege of facing Chargers right guard Cole Strange in Week 6, which ought to present more than enough opportunities for Jones to get at QB Justin Herbert. Strange has just a fourth percentile pass block win rate this season; Herbert is taking sacks at a massive 9.7% clip.Jones’ season is off to a quiet start with zero sacks and a 59th percentile pass rush win rate at defensive tackle. He can kickstart his year against Strange — and have an even bigger day if right tackle Joe Alt (neck) is out again.Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals: 34 routes, 6 targets, 2 receptions, 12 receiving yardsMarvin Harrison Jr. was traded to the Texans, so Wilson is in for a production explosion, right? That might happen … but only after this week against the Rams.Wilson could see a healthy dosage of Trent McDuffie — if the Rams’ top cornerback plays (he is questionable with a groin injury).
McDuffie is allowing 0.4 yards per coverage snap in 2026 — well below the 1.1 average for an outside cornerback, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Plus, he has spent 28% of his time in tight coverage, which puts him third in that stat — one spot above the aforementioned Gardner.Wilson has a 93 catch score in ESPN’s receiver scores, which means he’s good in contested catch situations. But he is struggling to get separation from defenders (47 open score). It is likely going to be a tough afternoon for him.Moody predicts three fantasy sleepersKirk Cousins, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (41.8% rostered in ESPN leagues)Cousins disappointed with just 13.7 fantasy points against the Patriots last week, but he has averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game this season.
He has a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the most to wide receivers.Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints (21.9%)Miller is on the flex radar against the Giants after leading the Saints’ backfield with 10 carries for 9.0 fantasy points last week. Alvin Kamara was dealing with a back injury in that game (and Travis Etienne Jr. has been on IR for the past two weeks), so Miller could see more touches if Kamara remains limited. The Giants’ defense has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season.Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams (11.2%)Higbee has seen at least six targets and scored 11 or more fantasy points in each of the past three games, including a 20.2-point performance in Week 3. The Rams lead the league with 43.8 pass attempts per game, and this week’s matchup against the Cardinals has one of the highest projected point totals on the slate (51.5 on DraftKings).
Arizona has also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.play1:04Why Rams releasing Harrison Mevis for Blake Grupe is a ‘significant change’Bowen predicts three touchdown scorersDrake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons London has yet to find the end zone this season, but he’s averaging seven catches and 136 receiving yards over the past three games. He will see plenty of man coverage from the Bears secondary Sunday (55.3% of co
Leave a Reply