playBill ConnellyOct 16, 2026, 06:15 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsYou probably know by now that I can talk myself into any Saturday slate. The sport is too rich, the backstories are too bountiful, and the crowds are too big — there’s always something interesting going on.Some weeks do require less convincing than others, however, and Week 7 is loaded.
It’s scheduled out almost perfectly, too. We start and finish Saturday with top-10 battles, and we get matching SEC top-15 games in between. The tough part of Notre Dame’s schedule finally begins with a trip to Provo, we get a rematch of last year’s epic Ohio State-Indiana Big Ten championship slugfest, the Third Saturday in October features wafts of desperation, and after stirring Week 6 wins, both Kentucky and UCLA face tricky hangover tests.The undercard is deep as well: We get a lovely set of rivalry games, and the smaller schools are also in on the act, with the vaunted Anchor-Bone Classic in Michigan (Ferris State-Grand Valley State) and another huge Division III game in Wisconsin. There are finally fall temperatures in the air, too!
Week 7 could be awfully special. Here’s everything you need to follow.The big rematch in BloomingtonOhio State and Indiana basically switched bodies in last season’s Big Ten championship. The Buckeyes were the defending national champs and came to Indy having won 16 straight, but the Hoosiers prevailed, won the national title and now carry a 22-game winning streak into the rematch. No. 4 Ohio State at No. 5 Indiana (noon, Fox)Some tight games are tight because a superior side makes mistakes or suffers some funky bounces and lets the other team hang around. (Hello, last week’s Oklahoma-Texas game.) Sometimes they’re tight because the teams are almost perfectly dead even.
The 2025 Big Ten championship game was 100% the latter.This was the ultimate fine-margins game. All of the major battles — efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, turnovers — were either even or shaded slightly toward Ohio State. But Indiana won 16 of the game’s 27 third and fourth downs (59%), including a key fourth-and-1 stuff and a nearly game-clinching Fernando Mendoza-to-Charlie Becker pass on third-and-6 after Ryan Day chickened out on another fourth-and-1 (and Ohio State missed the ensuing field goal).Indiana went 4-0 in one-score games last year in part because the Hoosiers won a ridiculous 76% of all third and fourth downs. They’ve continued winning close games this fall — 29-23 over a rising Northwestern, 20-17 over a rising Nebraska — and their defense remains ridiculously efficient (third in success rate).
The offense isn’t quite as consistent, though they’ve made up for it with big plays. But they’ve won only 59% of their third and fourth downs, and it was just 39% against Nebraska last week.The Hoosiers are still winning, but they’ll need those fine margins again when Ohio State visits. It’s the only way teams beat the Buckeyes — since their last game of 2022, they’ve suffered eight losses by an average of 4.5 points and won 42 games by an average of 27.8. They’re just 6-8 in games decided by 11 or fewer points.Ohio State has the best player in college football in receiver Jeremiah Smith, and while a rebuilt pass rush hasn’t totally clicked, the Buckeyes’ defense still ranks first in yards allowed per play.
Indiana could find advantages in both defending a less-than-explosive Buckeyes run game and in getting Becker and Nick Marsh open if quarterback Josh Hoover has time to operate. Let’s assume the trend holds and either Ohio State wins by 17 or loses by 3.Current line: OSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 0.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 0.7 Wisconsin at No. 12 UCLA (7:30 p.m., NBC)The Big Ten undercard gives us a UCLA-Wisconsin game that’s infinitely more tantalizing than we could have guessed a few weeks ago. UCLA remains unbeaten following a stirring win at Oregon. The Bruins are ruthlessly physical: They rank fourth in yards per carry (excluding sacks) and sixth in yards allowed per carry, with edge defenders Sammy Omosigho and Sahir West proving equally dominant at stopping the run as rushing the passer.
They overcame an injury to quarterback Nico Iamaleava last week, in part because the QB doesn’t have to do much.Wisconsin’s defense is the best the Bruins have faced. The Badgers are 12th in yards allowed per carry and eighth in yards allowed per dropback and could knock UCLA off schedule far more than preferred. Their running game is inconsistent and reliant on occasional bursts from Abu Sama III or quarterback Colton Joseph, but Joseph’s quick passing provides decent efficiency, and Wisconsin is capable of winning a ball control-and-field position game. UCLA and new QB Ty Dieffenbach will have to play well to survive.Current line: UCLA -2.5 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 7.2 | FPI projection: UCLA by 2.6A defining week in the Big 12Notre Dame has beaten only one SP+ top-50 team this season, but Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish head to Provo for BYU’s biggest home game since either 2004 (when No. 1 USC rolled 42-10) or 1990 (when No. 1 Miami fell 28-21).
Meanwhile, Houston and Oklahoma State will face off in what’s basically a Big 12 elimination game. No. 2 Notre Dame at No. 8 BYU (7:30 p.m., ABC)One thing we know about Kalani Sitake’s BYU team: The Cougars will always test your fortitude and your willingness to play with maximum physicality for 60 minutes. You might beat them — though, granted, only Texas Tech has done so in their last 21 games — but it will hurt.It sometimes hurts BYU too. Running back LJ Martin, one of the team’s meanest players (that’s meant as a compliment), is out with injury, meaning the game will be mostly in quarterback Bear Bachmeier’s hands.
He’s been as responsible as Martin for the Cougars’ No. 1 ranking in rushing success rate, and he has gone from averaging 7.2 yards per dropback in 2025 to 8.7 this season. Transfer receiver Kyler Kasper and freshman Legend Glasker are dangerous and could stress a Notre Dame secondary that might not include star corner Leonard Moore. But a nearly perfect Irish run defense will test BYU’s ability to avoid second- and third-and-longs.With freshman Jonaz Walton going for 301 rushing yards over the past two weeks and third-year receiver Micah Gilbert (19.9 yards per catch) emerging as a deep threat for CJ Carr, the Irish offense seems to be clicking into place. Notre Dame is averaging 44 points per game, though that’s come against defenses with an average SP+ ranking of 74.2.
BYU ranks ninth.I love this game. BYU will test Notre Dame’s toughness and tell us whether recent Irish blowout wins are indicative of a truly elite team. (They frequently are despite “ain’t played nobody!” objections.) Notre Dame, meanwhile, will tell us whether BYU has the requisite athleticism on the perimeter and whether Bachmeier’s ceiling is as high as I’m starting to think.Current line: Irish -10.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 4.0 | FPI projection: Irish by 10.9 No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston (7:30 p.m., Fox)Oklahoma State has overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 14.5 points per game since a season-opening face-plant against Tulsa; Houston has overachieved by 10.0 PPG in the same time frame. The Cowboys almost never go three-and-out, and 10.4% of their snaps gain 20-plus yards (fourth nationally). Meanwhile, the Cougars destroy teams with a million paper cuts: They’re second in success rate (55.0%), and they’ve scored a touchdown in every goal-to-go situation this season.If this is a big-play competition, OSU wins it.
Houston’s biggest weakness has come in allowing a few too many big pass plays, and its offense is in the service academy range of this chart:If this is an efficiency and count-the-mistakes competition, however, Houston rolls. The Cougars are third national
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