playMike ClayOct 15, 2026, 08:29 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWelcome to The Playbook for Week 6, which kicks off Thursday night with a game between the Seahawks and Broncos.This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start advice, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports into the game-by-game breakdowns here.
Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the analysis of each team’s strength of schedule for the remainder of the season.All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters.
The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense.DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are provided only for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for games scheduled on days other than Sunday. (Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.) SEA-DEN | HOU-JAX | CHI-ATL | BAL-CLE | TEN-IND | NYJ-NE | NO-NYG CAR-PHI | PIT-TB| ARI-LAR| LAC-KC | BUF-LV| DAL-GB | WAS-SFSeattle Seahawks @ Denver BroncosProjected Score: Seahawks 23, Broncos 18Lineup locks: Emanuel Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Fantasy Scoop: Sean Payton reclaimed playcalling duties for Denver in Week 5, but that wasn’t enough to get Jaylen Waddle’s season back on track. The ex-Dolphin was limited to a 2-19-0 receiving line on five targets, adding one carry for 9 yards.
Waddle’s production has been all over the map, as he has two games with 14-plus fantasy points and three with less than 6.5. Though his 21% target share is palatable, Denver’s struggling offense has him outside the top 30 receivers in both catches and yardage. Additionally, he has yet to see an end zone target and has been limited to just one touchdown.Waddle now faces a Seattle defense that, even after allowing 7-113-1 to Mike Evans last week, has surrendered the third-fewest yards and fantasy points to receivers this season. Waddle is no more than a flex option, whereas running mate Courtland Sutton should remain on benches/waivers.Over/Under: 40.7 (13th highest) Win Probability: Seahawks 66% (9th highest)Houston Texans @ Jacksonville JaguarsProjected Score: Jaguars 25, Texans 20Lineup locks: Bhayshul Tuten, Nico Collins, Parker Washington Fantasy Scoop: Over the past three weeks, Brenton Strange easily leads the Jaguars in targets with 21.
Strange’s season got off to a slow start (7-72-1 on 10 targets during Weeks 1-3), but he has been targeted exactly eight times in each of his past two games, which has resulted in receiving lines of 7-95-0 and 7-68-0.The boost in usage is enough to launch Strange into the streaming conversation, but we don’t want to get too carried away about a player in a crowded offense who averaged just 5.0 targets and 9.8 fantasy PPG last season. He’s a risky Week 6 start against a Houston defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points (and zero TDs) to tight ends this season.Over/Under: 44.5 (10th highest) Win Probability: Jaguars 66% (8th highest)Chicago Bears @ Atlanta FalconsProjected Score: Falcons 26, Bears 23Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Drake London, Luther Burden III Fantasy Scoop: Rome Odunze handled a season-high nine targets on Sunday. The result? An ugly 3-40-0 receiving line and 5.0 fantasy points — his fourth game under 7.5 fantasy points this season.
Odunze is tough to trust right now, but there are some reasons for optimism. For starters, Caleb Williams has a chance to return this week after a three-week absence. Additionally, after being limited due to health to open the season, Odunze has returned to an every-down role, handling a healthy 23% target share in consecutive games. In Week 4, that resulted in 94 yards on six catches.For the season, Odunze sits third among receivers in snaps and remains a factor near the goal line with three end zone targets.
Consider Odunze to be a WR3 in a terrific Week 6 matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the third-most catches and sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Through five games, seven wide receivers have scored 14.5-plus fantasy points against Atlanta.Over/Under: 49.1 (6th highest) Win Probability: Falcons 60% (10th highest)Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland BrownsProjected Score: Ravens 27, Browns 20Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Denzel Boston Fantasy Scoop: Boston looks like the real deal and should be locked into lineups this week after a strong start to the season. The rookie has played on 91% of Cleveland’s snaps and handled a solid 20% of targets resulting in a hefty 45% of air yards. He sits tied for second in the NFL with five end zone targets.
Boston’s usage has resulted in three touchdowns and four games with 12.9-plus fantasy points. Though Boston’s usage has been good, he very well could be in for even more targets with KC Concepcion expected to miss this game.Consider Boston to be a WR3 against a Baltimore defense that has surrendered the sixth-most catches and fifth-most yards to receivers this season. The opposing team’s No. 1 receiver has scored 18-plus fantasy points in four consecutive games against the Ravens.Over/Under: 47.1 (7th highest) Win Probability: Ravens 76% (5th highest)Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis ColtsProjected Score: Colts 25, Titans 17Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Carnell Tate, Tyler Warren Fantasy Scoop: Tony Pollard is off to a predictably pedestrian start to the 2026 season, averaging just 8.7 fantasy points per game. The veteran back’s role has been as expected.
He has handled 70% of Tennessee’s called runs and 8% of the targets while splitting backfield snaps near evenly with Tyjae Spears. Pollard has also been a bit unlucky in the TD department; he has scored only once despite an expected total (3.5) that ranks in the top 20 at the position.Pollard’s minimal receiving production (24 yards on 11 targets) is a problem, but solid rushing volume and a good matchup — the Colts have allowed the third-most yards and sixth-most fantasy points to RBs — in a Week 6 with four teams on a bye does position him as a palatable RB2 option.Over/Under: 41.3 (12th highest) Win Probability: Colts 77% (4th highest)New York Jets @ New England PatriotsProjected Score: Patriots 25, Jets 17Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson Fantasy Scoop: Welcome back, Mr. Maye. We missed you.
After totaling one TD and six INTs while failing to eclipse 208 passing yards or 9.8 fantasy point
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