Our football betting expert Lewis Jones is back to preview the weekend card;Watch Tottenham vs Everton, Coventry vs Brighton, Manchester United vs Manchester City & Leeds vs Newcastle live on Sky Sports | Play Super 6 to win £1m! Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the weekend Premier League action. Oliver Glanser’s record against Unai Emery is an unusually strong tactical head-to-head that is more than just a cute statistic. Glasner is unbeaten in seven meeting with Emery, winning five and what gives this angle extra robustness is across the last five league meetings Glasner’s team are creating 2.47 expected goals per 90.
He knows how to crack Emery’s tactical plan as Glasner’s teams are extremely comfortable allowing the opponent possession before attacking the spaces created when the opponent overcommits. This Glasner hold over Emery isn’t factored enough into the match pricing so the draw no bet on Forest at 5/4 with Sky Bet is a touch generous. Brentford have been all the rage with the betting markets over the first three games with the belief that Keith Andrews has improved them over the summer, although a few fingers were burnt, my included, with their lacklustre showing in the 1-1 with Sunderland last weekend. The sample size is small but there seems more aggression and pressing about Brentford this season with a rise in their high turnovers per 90 of 3.1 and 6.2 more fouls committed per 90.
Vitaly Janelt has been responsible for a lot of that upsurge, making 10 fouls in four games and being booked in all three Premier League games. Up against Adam Scott, who draws over two fouls per game, and Justin Kluivert who was fouled three times at Newcastle, he’s going to be in the firing line for fouls. The 7/4 for him to make two or more fouls is a lovely slice of value. Hull arrive at Stamford Bridge with seven points from three games and three consecutive clean sheets.
It’s been jaw dropping the way they have adapted their game to this level of football. And, this isn’t a promoted side accidentally stumbling into three clean sheets. There is a system behind it. They are a well-oiled machine without the ball.
Yes, their expected goals numbers suggest they’ve ridden their luck to some degree – but this has been an impressive display of defensive organisation, which isn’t a new trait. In their last 16 league games where they’ve enjoyed less than 45 per cent of the ball and started the match bigger than 2/1, they’ve conceded just nine goals, losing just two of those games, with those matches averaging a lowly 1.7 goals per game ratio. In that 16-game run they’ve conceded just two first-half goals. Insane defensive numbers.
Can they stop this Chelsea attack? It’s a fascinating match-up and the way the market is predicting attack to outgun defence with the expected goals line almost at 3.25 based on the odds I’d be wanting to row against that at the prices and give Hull more a chance than the 11/1 away win suggests. Getting Evens through the BuildABet function for under 1.5 first-half goals paired with under 3.5 total goals looks a shrewd play based on Hull’s ability to make games so difficult no matter who the opponent are. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Ipswich’s defeat to Liverpool may actually have hidden a reasonably encouraging performance – it certainly left boss Gary O’Neil very positive.
And, despite winning at Fulham, Palace were comprehensively second best across all the major performance metrics. Taking away the Glasner defensive structure is a concern for me, eight goals conceded in three games can’t go on. This line of thinking does make the 10/11 quotes for a home win look really easy to pass up. Whether this Ipswich side are quite trustworthy enough to become a betting proposition yet is another matter.
The draw it is then at 23/10. Fulham’s defensive structure under Alvaro Arbeloa has been wild. Long gone is the stability under Marco Silva. These wide open spaces look tailor-made to give Liverpool transition opportunities.
It should be a goal-crazy game. Fulham’s attack has looked dangerous too. They have had the most touches in the opposition box in the Premier League with Josh King leading the charge. The attacker is reportedly already attracting attention from the England staff after his excellent start – his ability to influence the game from the free role is a proper weapon for Fulham.
With goals at both ends on the menu, King looks a tasty price to score at 9/2 with Sky Bet. As a bettor you simply must be opposing Tottenham’s attacking volume until we start to see some evidence that Roberto De Zerbi has fixed their issues. Spurs are still waiting for their first goal of the season which means it’s now been 317 minutes of Premier League action since scoring against Everton in May. They’ve never failed to score in each of their first four league games of a season before, so some more unwanted history could be around the corner.
Interestingly for assessing the goal line, Everton’s attack ranks similarly over the first three games to Spurs, in terms of the quality of chances created. This stinks of an under 2.5 goals game at 5/6 with Sky Bet. Arsenal are being priced as though this is a mismatch at 4/9 with Sky Bet but the more interesting question is how Sunderland’s defensive structure and home form – added to Arsenal’s midweek Champions League exertions – may make this a trickier test than the odds suggest. Those looking towards a controlled Arsenal victory rather than a rout are probably on the right lines but the market is completely across that.
The foul numbers surrounding Bukayo Saka is the player prop that interests me most. Saka has already won 10 fouls in three Premier League appearances, putting him second in the division for fouls won. His likely opponent Reinildo Mandava made five fouls in this fixture last season and will be looking to stop Saka by any means possible. It’s a high line on paper but Saka to win three or more fouls has a chance at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
There will be no panic at Coventry despite three loses to start the season – and rightly so. However, only one promoted team from 12 to have lost their first three Premier League games have managed to survive. When losing becomes a habit, it’s a hard one to chuck. The 2/1 with Sky Bet about Coventry finishing bottom of the pile could become a popular bet the longer this losing streak continues.
Brighton have the highest expected goals return, most open play crosses and most big chances in the Premier League this season. The 17/20 with Sky Bet for the away win will be a popular play. There are lingering doubt about Manchester United’s long-term prospects under Michael Carrick, mostly due to their worrying defensive metrics. However, Carrick has shown a knack of getting big results against big clubs.
In eight matches against the traditional “big six” and Aston Villa, the United boss has won seven and drawn the other. To put up an average of 2.25 goals scored per 90 across those eight matches is a standout metric which isn’t being given enough respect by the market here. United are a 21/10 shot with Sky Bet to win this one which implies a win probability of 33 per cent. That feels low considering home advantage and that Carrick record.
Home win it is. Newcastle’s draw with Bournemouth was a little reminder that this rebuild under Matthias Jaissle could be quite volatile at times. The Toon have scored six goals from an expected goals return of just three and have faced the most shots of any team this season, hinting at an overperformance. Leeds are a reliable team to bet on.
You know exactly what you’re going to get. Usually that means Daniel Farke’s team avoiding defeat which is what they’ve done in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games. They defend with great organisation and attack with authority. They are 11/8 with Sky Bet to win.
I do like that home win but I also like the prospects of Matias Fernandez-Pardo drawing cards for Newcastle. He could be in line for his first start having come off the bench in the last two games in all competitions. The £51m signing was Lille’s main man in Ligue 1 last season and drew 15 cards in just over 3,000 minutes of action – an impressive strike-rate. This leaves Ethan Ampadu vulnerable to card at 3/1 with Sky Bet based on his record of being booked 10 times last season.
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