playBill ConnellySep 9, 2026, 06:30 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Multiple AuthorsOpen Extended ReactionsWhat is and isn’t true about the epic hype that has surrounded the latest Manning prodigy?At this stage, however, what is the Arch Manning myth? That he’s dramatically overhyped?
That, after the pushback to last year’s hype, he’s actually underhyped now? That he’s the best college quarterback and a surefire No. 1 pick? That he’s barely even a top-10 NFL prospect amid a loaded batch of college QBs?The Texas QB suffered a mediocre start to last season, including a meek 14-7 defeat to Ohio State, an 11-for-25 performance against UTEP, a pair of interceptions in a devastating upset loss to Florida and a 23.7 Total QBR in a near-loss against Kentucky. But he and the Longhorns rallied, averaging 35 points while winning five of their last six, including a win over Texas A&M, and nearly snagging a College Football Playoff berth.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian surrounded him with star transfers this offseason, thinning out the Texas skill corps a bit but adding blue-chip receiver Cam Coleman and a pair of standout running backs in Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown.Did that bring the hype all the way back? Or did the average college football fan write him off for good last year? I’m honestly not sure, but I know that Manning and the Horns looked spectacular in a Week 1 blasting of Texas State, and they host top-ranked Ohio State on Saturday night in the biggest game of the early season. Whatever the current Arch myths are, let’s test them out.
Can we confirm them or bust them?Myth No. 1: Arch is a bustVerdict: Busted!Yes, this one has been busted for a while, but it picked up major steam last October. Through eight starts in 2025, Manning’s Total QBR was just 58.6, 74th in FBS and behind other struggling former blue-chippers such as UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava (70th), Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola (71st) and Auburn’s Jackson Arnold (72nd). Texas was lucky to be even 6-2 after narrowly surviving against two eventual five-win opponents (Kentucky and Mississippi State).Once the calendar flipped to November, however, Manning began to produce. He posted the best Total QBR in the country from that point, charging up to finish 17th overall.
He produced a Total QBR of 91.9 or higher in four of his last five games of the season, and he began this season with a 96.0 against Texas State. In these past six games, he has improved in basically every important category.While that latter sample does include Saturday’s start against a shaky Texas State defense, it also includes games against two CFP teams from last season (Georgia and Texas A&M) and two more teams that finished ranked (Vanderbilt and Michigan). The competition has been solid, but Manning has been great.Where has he improved?There’s no single category that tells the story here — as you can see above, he has improved just about everywhere. He’s running more selectively (and explosively), and he’s completing a few more of his passes for slightly bigger gains.Honestly, the biggest thing seems to simply be that his decision-making has sped up.
It would make sense if the game began to slow down for a talented QB after a few starts, and two telling statistical shifts hint at that. First, he has thrown 12.0% of his passes to players running vertical routes over these past six games, compared to only 7.5% in his first eight starts. He has been more aggressive and less willing to settle for checkdowns, but even though vertical routes can take more time to develop, he has also improved his average time to throw, from 2.93 seconds over the first eight starts to 2.77 since. For obvious reasons, that helps in the sacks department.In theory, this is the best kind of improvement because it’s incremental — it’s not some new trick or huge strategic shift.
He has simply improved because he’s improved.At this point, what are his biggest strengths?You cannot underestimate the importance of athleticism in his game. Manning might not run much, but his ability to steal huge chunks of yards with his legs is a hell of a difference-maker. Not including sacks, Manning rushed 69 times last season, and 21 of those carries gained at least 10 yards. Six gained at least 20, and interestingly, all six of them came in the second half.
His 35-yard touchdown run against unbeaten Texas A&M gave the Longhorns a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter (they ended up winning by 10), and his 60-yard scoring run against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl gave them an 11-point advantage (they won by 14).play0:32Arch Manning breaks free for a 60-yard TDHe seems to pick his spots when it comes to running, and he picks extremely useful, high-leverage times. But even if it’s selective, the rushing is key because the passing numbers alone are merely good, not elite.Among the 60 power-conference quarterbacks who have started at least four games since Nov. 1 (including players who left college after the 2025 season), Manning ranks eighth in yards per completion, eighth in interception rate, eighth in sack rate, 10th in passing success rate and 32nd in completion rate.Because Sarkisian’s offense is always going to be built around stealing quick yards when possible, Manning still throws far more passes at or behind the line of scrimmage than most — 31.6% of passes in this sample, compared to 21.7% for Ohio State’s Julian Sayin or 20.0% for Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss. So the fact that his completion rate remains that low is a sign that he’s not the most accurate guy in the world. But if you can combine fast, sharp decision-making, a low mistake rate (either INTs or sacks) and fast running, you’re probably going to do well for yourself.Myth No. 2: Arch is an elite college QB and a likely NFL starVerdict: Plausible but inconclusiveCollege football is loaded with star quarterbacks in 2026.
Manning is certainly one of them, but in our preseason CFB Player Rank, he was the No. 6 QB on the list (and 13th overall) behind Chambliss (fifth), Notre Dame’s CJ Carr (seventh), Sayin (eighth), USC’s Jayden Maiava (ninth) and Oregon’s Dante Moore (11th). While Manning runs better than anyone on that list except Chambliss, his passing stats mostly lag behind those five and another top-25 QB, Miami’s Darian Mensah.Manning’s biggest weakness is a rather confusing one. While he can throw and he can run, he can’t really throw well on the run. From a piece I contributed to in April: “Among QBR-eligible passers in 2025, Manning ranked just 94th in completion rate (48.6%) and 75th in catchable ball rate on the move.
He ranked just 82nd in completion percentage outside the pocket (49.2%), too. … His technique still falters when he goes off script.”The best example of this comes from the A&M game. Midway through the third quarter, Manning took off to scramble but kept his eyes downfield, spotted Ryan Wingo wide open in the end zone and improvised his way into a go-ahead touchdown pass. However, he very nearly airmailed a ridiculously open receiver.play0:22Arch Manning launches a beauty to Ryan Wingo for a Texas TDManning’s numbers are also well below average when he faces pressure.
They’re improving, so maybe this is another case in which he simply needed more reps and things will soon slow down for him. But even the improved numbers lag behind college football’s best. Looking specifically at his past six games, he still ranks only 33rd among 60 power-conference quarterbacks for completion rate under pressure (47.2%), 25th in yards per completion (13.1), 18th in passing success rate (33.9%) and 16th in yards per dropback (5.0). He’s good against zone coverage in these situations, but when pressured against man coverage, he has gone just 5-of-14 for 67 yards with three sacks.
Yards per dropback: 3.7.He has dramatically cut the negative plays, however. In his first eight starts, he took sacks 17.1% of the time
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